luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2022 · September 25, 2022

Falcons at Seahawks, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Seahawks 27–23, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Falcons win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 23 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 2:16 left): Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 35 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 27
Seattle Seahawks 23

September 25, 2022 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −1

Luck index +46 Falcons lucky · −46 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 5, Seahawks win 5.

  1. 1 ATL 36 SEA 14
  2. 2 ATL 31 SEA 16
  3. 3 ATL 13 SEA 3
  4. 4 ATL 23 SEA 17
  5. 5 ATL 34 SEA 31
  6. 6 ATL 17 SEA 19
  7. 7 ATL 21 SEA 27
  8. 8 ATL 7 SEA 16
  9. 9 ATL 14 SEA 27
  10. 10 ATL 7 SEA 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 54% of them, Seahawks 46%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+10.8%
Falcons by 9–1615.5%
Falcons by 1–822.3%
Level after regulation6.5%
Seahawks by 1–822.4%
Seahawks by 9–1613.3%
Seahawks by 17+9.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 4, without the luck Falcons by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • Y. Koo, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • J. Myers, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • Y. Koo, 54 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Myers, 25 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 2 for 15 yards, Seahawks 6 for 47 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:49 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks, 5 yards +3% ATL +0.9 pts
Q1 7:20 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Michael Jackson), 2 yards +2% ATL +0.3 pts
Q1 0:31 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +2% SEA +1.2 pts
Q3 13:03 Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Quandre Diggs), 15 yards +5% ATL +1.3 pts
Q3 10:55 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% SEA +0.8 pts
Q3 4:49 False Start on the Seahawks (Colby Parkinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.8 pts
Q4 12:10 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +5% ATL +1.0 pts
Q4 2:16 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +35% ATL +2.6 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:33 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% SEA SEA: Field goal
2 Q2 11:00 The Falcons converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +10% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:05 The Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +9% SEA ATL: Field goal
4 Q3 0:41 The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q4 12:51 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% SEA SEA: Punt
6 Q4 5:16 The Falcons fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% SEA ATL: End of game
7 Q4 2:16 The game turned hereOffensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +35% ATL ATL: End of game
8 Q4 1:30 The Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +32% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jake Curhan (SEA T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Sidney Jones (SEA CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tyler Ott (SEA LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (ATL T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Deion Jones (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jalen Mayfield (ATL G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 56% · Seahawks 44%

Final margin
Falcons by 4
Luck in points
3.1 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 54% · Seahawks 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · Falcons · Seahawks

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