luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2022 · September 25, 2022

Eagles at Commanders, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Commanders 24–8, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:11 left): the Eagles were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 9 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 24
Washington Commanders 8

September 25, 2022 · FedExField · Closing line: Eagles −6

Luck index +3 Eagles about even · −3 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 10, Commanders win 0.

  1. 1 PHI 45 WAS 3
  2. 2 PHI 35 WAS 6
  3. 3 PHI 38 WAS 13
  4. 4 PHI 34 WAS 12
  5. 5 PHI 34 WAS 14
  6. 6 PHI 23 WAS 6
  7. 7 PHI 32 WAS 20
  8. 8 PHI 31 WAS 21
  9. 9 PHI 10 WAS 3
  10. 10 PHI 22 WAS 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 97% of them, Commanders 3%. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+77.6%
Eagles by 9–1614.5%
Eagles by 1–85.1%
Level after regulation0.3%
Commanders by 1–81.8%
Commanders by 9–160.6%
Commanders by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.2 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 16, without the luck Eagles by 8.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Eagles 5 for 52 yards, Commanders 4 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Rachad Wildgoose), 23 yards +5% PHI +2.1 pts
Q1 9:16 False Start on the Commanders, 3 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.1 pts
Q2 5:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Rachad Wildgoose), 17 yards +1% PHI +1.1 pts
Q2 2:08 Illegal Blindside Block on the Eagles, 12 yards +2% WAS +1.1 pts
Q3 1:00 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.9 pts
Q3 0:54 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles, 15 yards 0% WAS +3.4 pts
Q4 11:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Kyzir White), 5 yards 0% WAS +0.4 pts
Q4 4:02 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Kyzir White), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% PHI +0.9 pts
Q4 3:55 Face Mask on the Eagles, 15 yards 0% WAS +1.8 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:34 The Commanders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +4% WAS WAS: Punt
2 Q1 13:57 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +3% PHI WAS: Punt
3 Q1 12:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Rachad Wildgoose), 23 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 48 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +5% PHI PHI: Punt
4 Q1 10:56 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +3% WAS PHI: Punt
5 Q1 1:45 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% PHI PHI: Field goal
6 Q2 14:12 The Commanders fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PHI WAS: Punt
7 Q2 10:46 The Eagles fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% PHI PHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 7:11 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +9% WAS PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • James Smith-Williams (WAS DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Casey Toohill (WAS DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 94% · Commanders 6%

Final margin
Eagles by 16
Luck in points
7.2 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 8.8
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 97% · Commanders 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · Eagles · Commanders

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