luckadjusted

Week 3 2022 · September 25, 2022

Eagles at Commanders, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Commanders 24–8, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10. The Commanders had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.2 points to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:11 left): the Eagles were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 9 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 24
Washington Commanders 8

September 25, 2022 · FedExField · Closing line: Eagles −6

Luck index +7 Eagles about even · −7 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 9, Commanders win 1.

  1. 1 PHI 38 WAS 3
  2. 2 PHI 33 WAS 6
  3. 3 PHI 41 WAS 19
  4. 4 PHI 34 WAS 15
  5. 5 PHI 26 WAS 10
  6. 6 PHI 33 WAS 20
  7. 7 PHI 16 WAS 6
  8. 8 PHI 34 WAS 27
  9. 9 PHI 20 WAS 17
  10. 10 PHI 31 WAS 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 93% of them, Commanders 7%. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+61.8%
Eagles by 9–1620.2%
Eagles by 1–811.1%
Level after regulation0.5%
Commanders by 1–84.8%
Commanders by 9–161.4%
Commanders by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 12.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:34 The Commanders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% WAS WAS: Punt
2 Q1 13:57 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% PHI WAS: Punt
3 Q1 12:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Rachad Wildgoose), 23 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 48 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +5% PHI PHI: Punt
4 Q1 3:55 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% PHI WAS: Punt
5 Q1 1:45 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% PHI PHI: Field goal
6 Q2 14:12 The Commanders fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PHI WAS: Punt
7 Q2 10:46 The Eagles fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% PHI PHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 7:11 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +9% WAS PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • James Smith-Williams (WAS DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Casey Toohill (WAS DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 97% · Commanders 3%

Final margin
Eagles by 16
Luck in points
3.6 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 12.4
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 93% · Commanders 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · Eagles · Commanders

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