luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2022 · September 25, 2022

Bengals at Jets, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Jets 27–12, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 68% favorites.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 27
New York Jets 12

September 25, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −6.5

Luck index +7 Bengals about even · −7 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 9, Jets win 1.

  1. 1 CIN 41 NYJ 9
  2. 2 CIN 27 NYJ 3
  3. 3 CIN 27 NYJ 7
  4. 4 CIN 23 NYJ 6
  5. 5 CIN 27 NYJ 12
  6. 6 CIN 38 NYJ 27
  7. 7 CIN 24 NYJ 15
  8. 8 CIN 23 NYJ 17
  9. 9 CIN 13 NYJ 10
  10. 10 CIN 16 NYJ 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 93% of them, Jets 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+59.1%
Bengals by 9–1622.2%
Bengals by 1–811.1%
Level after regulation0.7%
Jets by 1–85.0%
Jets by 9–161.4%
Jets by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 points to the Jets: the final margin was Bengals by 15, without the luck Bengals by 18.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 50 yds made · 68% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • E. McPherson, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • E. McPherson, 43 yds made · 84% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 52 yds made · 66% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • E. McPherson, 41 yds missed · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 5 for 30 yards, Jets 4 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:47 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q1 10:35 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% NYJ +2.5 pts
Q1 9:35 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Chidobe Awuzie), 5 yards +1% NYJ +0.3 pts
Q1 0:59 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (John Franklin-Myers), 15 yards +7% CIN +2.3 pts
Q2 10:13 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Lamarcus Joyner), 15 yards +4% CIN +1.0 pts
Q2 6:16 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q2 2:35 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +1% CIN +0.5 pts
Q3 12:02 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bengals, 5 yards +1% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q4 10:37 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Corey Davis), 15 yards +1% CIN +1.4 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:20 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:35 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
3 Q1 9:45 The Bengals converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:54 The Bengals fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NYJ CIN: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:59 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (John Franklin-Myers), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1324 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +7% CIN CIN: Touchdown
6 Q1 0:05 The Bengals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:43 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% NYJ CIN: Punt
8 Q2 0:03 G. Zuerlein made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 32 of 46 from 45+ before +6% NYJ NYJ: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Bryce Hall (NYJ CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Germaine Pratt (CIN LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Isaiah Prince (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 99% · Jets 1%

Final margin
Bengals by 15
Luck in points
3.4 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 18.4
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 93% · Jets 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · Bengals · Jets

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