luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2022 · September 25, 2022

Texans at Bears, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Texans 23–20, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Bears were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:13 left): the Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 19 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Houston Texans 20
Chicago Bears 23

September 25, 2022 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −3

Luck index +32 Bears lucky · −32 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 3, Bears win 7.

  1. 1 HOU 30 CHI 12
  2. 2 HOU 23 CHI 13
  3. 3 HOU 16 CHI 13
  4. 4 HOU 27 CHI 29
  5. 5 HOU 19 CHI 24
  6. 6 HOU 14 CHI 21
  7. 7 HOU 6 CHI 17
  8. 8 HOU 17 CHI 32
  9. 9 HOU 3 CHI 22
  10. 10 HOU 17 CHI 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 32% of them, Bears 68%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+4.4%
Texans by 9–168.8%
Texans by 1–815.0%
Level after regulation4.2%
Bears by 1–823.6%
Bears by 9–1620.6%
Bears by 17+23.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 points to the Texans: the final margin was Bears by 3, without the luck Bears by 3.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 47 yds made · 73% expected
  • C. Santos, 50 yds made · 67% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Santos, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 3 for 25 yards, Bears 6 for 32 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:45 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 13:01 Defensive Holding on the Bears, 5 yards +2% HOU +1.0 pts
Q2 1:01 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Cole Kmet), 7 yards +3% HOU +0.6 pts
Q3 13:17 Illegal Contact on the Bears (Kindle Vildor), 5 yards +2% HOU +0.7 pts
Q4 9:04 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.6 pts
Q4 7:32 Illegal Substitution on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.7 pts
Q4 6:46 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.3 pts
Q4 4:32 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +8% CHI +1.1 pts
Q4 1:52 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +15% CHI +0.9 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:08 The Bears converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% CHI CHI: Field goal
2 Q1 2:54 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50The Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +13% HOU HOU: Turnover
3 Q2 4:06 The Bears converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +10% CHI CHI: Field goal
4 Q4 6:39 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% HOU HOU: Punt
5 Q4 5:18 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +13% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q4 3:55 The Texans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +11% HOU HOU: Punt
7 Q4 1:52 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yardsJudgment calls +15% CHI CHI: Field goal
8 Q4 1:13 The Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +19% CHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaylon Johnson (CHI CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Justin Britt (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tavierre Thomas (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 28% · Bears 72%

Final margin
Bears by 3
Luck in points
0.6 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 3.6
Replay with same day's form
Texans 32% · Bears 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · Texans · Bears

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