luckadjusted

Week 3 2022 · September 25, 2022

Jaguars at Chargers, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Chargers 38–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: drops alone were worth 3.0 points to the Chargers.

An off day for the Chargers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Chargers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:34 left): the Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 17 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 38
Los Angeles Chargers 10

September 25, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −6.5

Luck index +14 Jaguars about even · −14 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 9, Chargers win 1.

  1. 1 JAX 30 LAC 0
  2. 2 JAX 33 LAC 12
  3. 3 JAX 27 LAC 10
  4. 4 JAX 30 LAC 16
  5. 5 JAX 20 LAC 8
  6. 6 JAX 33 LAC 24
  7. 7 JAX 27 LAC 20
  8. 8 JAX 17 LAC 13
  9. 9 JAX 23 LAC 21
  10. 10 JAX 20 LAC 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Chargers

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.

43 points apart for the Chargers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained +0.16 +0.07 better by 0.10
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed −0.01 +0.15 better by 0.16
Chargers offenseEPA per play gained −0.01 +0.16 worse by 0.17
Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.16 +0.12 worse by 0.05

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 86% of them, Chargers 14%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+39.0%
Jaguars by 9–1625.7%
Jaguars by 1–820.5%
Level after regulation1.2%
Chargers by 1–89.7%
Chargers by 9–163.1%
Chargers by 17+0.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 28. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 22.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Patterson, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Patterson, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 25 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:13 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% LAC JAX: Punt
2 Q2 15:00 R. Patterson made 22-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +8% LAC JAX: Field goal
3 Q2 14:49 The Chargers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% JAX LAC: Turnover
4 Q2 12:34 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Chargers fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% JAX LAC: Touchdown
5 Q2 4:55 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% JAX JAX: Field goal
6 Q2 1:04 R. Patterson made 23-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +8% LAC JAX: End of half
7 Q3 14:00 The Chargers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +12% LAC LAC: Field goal
8 Q3 10:47 The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +12% JAX JAX: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Keenan Allen (LAC WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Corey Linsley (LAC C), out · 0.7 pts
  • Shaquill Griffin (JAX CB), out · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 100% · Chargers 0%

Final margin
Jaguars by 28
Luck in points
5.6 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 22.4
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 86% · Chargers 14% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · Jaguars · Chargers

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