luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2022 · September 25, 2022

Jaguars at Chargers, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Chargers 38–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Chargers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Chargers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 14:49 left): the Chargers were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 9 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 38
Los Angeles Chargers 10

September 25, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −6.5

Luck index +15 Jaguars about even · −15 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 9, Chargers win 1.

  1. 1 JAX 41 LAC 14
  2. 2 JAX 34 LAC 14
  3. 3 JAX 17 LAC 0
  4. 4 JAX 30 LAC 17
  5. 5 JAX 21 LAC 10
  6. 6 JAX 22 LAC 13
  7. 7 JAX 20 LAC 14
  8. 8 JAX 23 LAC 20
  9. 9 JAX 12 LAC 10
  10. 10 JAX 13 LAC 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Chargers

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%.

42 points apart for the Chargers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained +0.16 +0.07 better by 0.10
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed −0.01 +0.15 better by 0.16
Chargers offenseEPA per play gained −0.01 +0.16 worse by 0.17
Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.16 +0.12 worse by 0.05

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 85% of them, Chargers 15%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+38.2%
Jaguars by 9–1625.0%
Jaguars by 1–820.9%
Level after regulation1.4%
Chargers by 1–89.8%
Chargers by 9–163.7%
Chargers by 17+1.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 28, without the luck Jaguars by 24.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Patterson, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Patterson, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 25 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 2 for 10 yards, Chargers 7 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:21 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Austin Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.5 pts
Q1 6:39 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +2% JAX +1.4 pts
Q1 3:28 False Start on the Jaguars (Christian Kirk), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LAC +0.8 pts
Q2 14:57 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Joshua Kelley), 9 yards +1% JAX +0.8 pts
Q2 0:38 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.3 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Tre' McKitty), 10 yards +1% JAX +0.9 pts
Q3 8:30 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Kyle Van Noy), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.5 pts
Q3 0:58 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +1% JAX +1.5 pts
Q4 1:13 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Foyesade Oluokun), 5 yards 0% LAC +0.3 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:13 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% LAC JAX: Punt
2 Q1 4:11 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +5% JAX JAX: Field goal
3 Q2 14:49 The Chargers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +9% JAX LAC: Turnover
4 Q2 13:59 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% LAC JAX: Field goal
5 Q2 12:34 The Chargers fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% JAX LAC: Touchdown
6 Q2 11:39 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% JAX JAX: Touchdown
7 Q2 4:55 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% JAX JAX: Field goal
8 Q3 14:00 The Chargers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +7% LAC LAC: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Keenan Allen (LAC WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Corey Linsley (LAC C), out · 0.7 pts
  • Shaquill Griffin (JAX CB), out · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 100% · Chargers 0%

Final margin
Jaguars by 28
Luck in points
3.6 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 24.4
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 85% · Chargers 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · Jaguars · Chargers

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