luckadjusted

Week 3 2022 · September 26, 2022

Cowboys at Giants, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Giants 23–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 7.7 points to the Giants.

An off day for the Giants: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:27 left): the Cowboys converted 4th & 4, worth 16 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 23
New York Giants 16

September 26, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Giants −1

Luck index +4 Cowboys about even · −4 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 10, Giants win 0.

  1. 1 DAL 37 NYG 0
  2. 2 DAL 43 NYG 13
  3. 3 DAL 31 NYG 7
  4. 4 DAL 27 NYG 7
  5. 5 DAL 30 NYG 13
  6. 6 DAL 31 NYG 17
  7. 7 DAL 30 NYG 17
  8. 8 DAL 33 NYG 23
  9. 9 DAL 19 NYG 13
  10. 10 DAL 27 NYG 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Giants

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.

47 points apart for the Giants: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained +0.19 +0.12 better by 0.07
Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed −0.04 +0.09 better by 0.13
Giants offenseEPA per play gained −0.04 +0.02 worse by 0.06
Giants defenseEPA per play allowed +0.19 +0.12 worse by 0.08

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 96% of them, Giants 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+70.6%
Cowboys by 9–1617.6%
Cowboys by 1–88.0%
Level after regulation0.8%
Giants by 1–82.5%
Giants by 9–160.4%
Giants by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 10.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 47 yds blocked · 80% expected
  • B. Maher, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • G. Gano, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • B. Maher, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. Maher, 59 yds missed · 53% expected
  • G. Gano, 51 yds made · 73% expected
  • B. Maher, 44 yds made · 79% expected
  • G. Gano, 51 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:49 G. Gano had a 47-yard field goal blockedKicks · 80% expected for him, 21 of 25 from 45+ before +11% DAL NYG: Field goal
2 Q2 5:10 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +11% DAL DAL: Punt
3 Q2 0:04 B. Maher missed 59-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 8 of 15 from 45+ before +10% NYG DAL: Punt
4 Q3 11:27 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% DAL DAL: Punt
5 Q4 14:53 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedS. Shepard dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 13 catchable balls before this +12% DAL NYG: Punt
6 Q4 10:27 The Cowboys converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +15% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 7:49 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedK. Golladay dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 2 catchable balls before thisDelay of Game on the Giants, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +12% DAL NYG: Punt
8 Q4 1:22 The Giants got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% NYG NYG: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Leonard Williams (NYG DT), out · 0.6 pts
  • Aaron Robinson (NYG CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out, replaced by c.rush · 5.4 pts
  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Dalton Schultz (DAL TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jayron Kearse (DAL FS), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 61% · Giants 39%

Final margin
Cowboys by 7
Luck in points
3.1 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 10.1
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 96% · Giants 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · Cowboys · Giants

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