2022 season · final

Chicago Bears, 2022: game by game

The Bears went 3–14 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.3 wins. Luck cost them 1.3: the 6th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–7.

Every game

How often the Bears win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs 49ers	W 19–10	43%	+57
Week 2	@ Packers	L 10–27	13%	−13
Week 3	vs Texans	W 23–20	68%	+32
Week 4	@ Giants	L 12–20	18%	−18
Week 5	@ Vikings	L 22–29	9%	−9
Week 6	vs Commanders	L 7–12	62%	−62
Week 7	@ Patriots	W 33–14	38%	+62
Week 8	@ Cowboys	L 29–49	7%	−7
Week 9	vs Dolphins	L 32–35	15%	−15
Week 10	vs Lions	L 30–31	43%	−43
Week 11	@ Falcons	L 24–27	13%	−13
Week 12	@ Jets	L 10–31	23%	−23
Week 13	vs Packers	L 19–28	19%	−19
Week 15	vs Eagles	L 20–25	16%	−16
Week 16	vs Bills	L 13–35	4%	−4
Week 17	@ Lions	L 10–41	0%	0
Week 18	vs Vikings	L 13–29	37%	−37

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +57 vs SF

Wk 2 −13 @ GB

Wk 3 +32 vs HOU

Wk 4 −18 @ NYG

Wk 5 −9 @ MIN

Wk 6 −62 vs WAS

Wk 7 +62 @ NE

Wk 8 −7 @ DAL

Wk 9 −15 vs MIA

Wk 10 −43 vs DET

Wk 11 −13 @ ATL

Wk 12 −23 @ NYJ

Wk 13 −19 vs GB

Wk 15 −16 vs PHI

Wk 16 −4 vs BUF

Wk 17 0 @ DET

Wk 18 −37 vs MIN

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bears’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.39	+19.0
Fumble bounces	+0.23	+8.1
Rest	+0.03	+1.2
Judgment calls	−0.12	−5.3
Injuries	−0.12	−5.4
Drops	−0.38	−17.3
3rd & 4th downs	−0.44	−10.3