2022 season · final

Chicago Bears, 2022: game by game

The Bears went 3–14 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.4 wins. Luck cost them 1.4: the 7th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–7.

Every game

How often the Bears win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs 49ers	W 19–10	42%	+58
Week 2	@ Packers	L 10–27	12%	−12
Week 3	vs Texans	W 23–20	72%	+28
Week 4	@ Giants	L 12–20	12%	−12
Week 5	@ Vikings	L 22–29	8%	−8
Week 6	vs Commanders	L 7–12	62%	−62
Week 7	@ Patriots	W 33–14	41%	+59
Week 8	@ Cowboys	L 29–49	7%	−7
Week 9	vs Dolphins	L 32–35	20%	−20
Week 10	vs Lions	L 30–31	52%	−52
Week 11	@ Falcons	L 24–27	13%	−13
Week 12	@ Jets	L 10–31	22%	−22
Week 13	vs Packers	L 19–28	28%	−28
Week 15	vs Eagles	L 20–25	11%	−11
Week 16	vs Bills	L 13–35	5%	−5
Week 17	@ Lions	L 10–41	1%	−1
Week 18	vs Vikings	L 13–29	35%	−35

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +58 vs SF

Wk 2 −12 @ GB

Wk 3 +28 vs HOU

Wk 4 −12 @ NYG

Wk 5 −8 @ MIN

Wk 6 −62 vs WAS

Wk 7 +59 @ NE

Wk 8 −7 @ DAL

Wk 9 −20 vs MIA

Wk 10 −52 vs DET

Wk 11 −13 @ ATL

Wk 12 −22 @ NYJ

Wk 13 −28 vs GB

Wk 15 −11 vs PHI

Wk 16 −5 vs BUF

Wk 17 −1 @ DET

Wk 18 −35 vs MIN

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Bears’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Kicks	+18.7	+1.10
Fumble bounces	+6.3	+0.37
Rest	+1.2	+0.07
Injuries	−7.2	−0.42
Drops	−8.1	−0.48
Judgment calls	−10.3	−0.61
3rd & 4th downs	−12.0	−0.71