luckadjusted

Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022

Bears at Jets, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Bears 31–10 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Jets were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:34 left): the Jets converted 3rd & 9, worth 15 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Chicago Bears 10
New York Jets 31

November 27, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −8.5

Luck index +22 Jets about even · −22 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 2, Jets win 8.

  1. 1 CHI 34 NYJ 23
  2. 2 CHI 13 NYJ 10
  3. 3 CHI 20 NYJ 22
  4. 4 CHI 17 NYJ 21
  5. 5 CHI 10 NYJ 17
  6. 6 CHI 13 NYJ 22
  7. 7 CHI 0 NYJ 12
  8. 8 CHI 13 NYJ 29
  9. 9 CHI 19 NYJ 38
  10. 10 CHI 16 NYJ 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 22% of them, Jets 78%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+1.8%
Bears by 9–165.5%
Bears by 1–812.6%
Level after regulation2.6%
Jets by 1–827.4%
Jets by 9–1622.0%
Jets by 17+28.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jets by 21. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 17.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 57 yds made · 58% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 53 yds missed · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:17 The Jets converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +5% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:29 The Bears converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% CHI CHI: Field goal
3 Q1 4:26 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% CHI NYJ: Punt
4 Q2 14:24 The Bears converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% CHI CHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:20 The Jets got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 13:36 The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 11:34 The Jets converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +15% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 10:36 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +4% NYJ CHI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Breece Hall (NYJ RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (NYJ DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jaquan Brisker (CHI SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Lucas Patrick (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 0% · Jets 100%

Final margin
Jets by 21
Luck in points
3.7 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 17.3
Replay with same day's form
Bears 22% · Jets 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Bears · Jets

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