luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022

Bears at Jets, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Bears 31–10, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Jets were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:34 left): the Jets converted 3rd & 9, worth 10 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Chicago Bears 10
New York Jets 31

November 27, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −8.5

Luck index +23 Jets about even · −23 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 2, Jets win 8.

  1. 1 CHI 30 NYJ 17
  2. 2 CHI 20 NYJ 17
  3. 3 CHI 14 NYJ 16
  4. 4 CHI 20 NYJ 24
  5. 5 CHI 24 NYJ 30
  6. 6 CHI 21 NYJ 30
  7. 7 CHI 6 NYJ 19
  8. 8 CHI 10 NYJ 26
  9. 9 CHI 16 NYJ 36
  10. 10 CHI 17 NYJ 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 23% of them, Jets 77%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+2.6%
Bears by 9–166.5%
Bears by 1–813.5%
Level after regulation4.3%
Jets by 1–825.9%
Jets by 9–1622.1%
Jets by 17+25.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 21, without the luck Jets by 19.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 57 yds made · 60% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 53 yds missed · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 1 for 10 yards, Jets 1 for 5 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 0:51 Illegal Shift on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CHI +0.7 pts
Q3 2:28 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% NYJ +2.1 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:17 The Jets converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:26 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% CHI NYJ: Punt
3 Q2 14:24 The Bears converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% CHI CHI: Touchdown
4 Q2 14:20 The Jets got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +5% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 13:36 The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 11:34 The Jets converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +10% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 1:53 The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +4% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
8 Q3 10:36 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +4% NYJ CHI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Breece Hall (NYJ RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (NYJ DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jaquan Brisker (CHI SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Lucas Patrick (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 0% · Jets 100%

Final margin
Jets by 21
Luck in points
1.9 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 19.1
Replay with same day's form
Bears 23% · Jets 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Bears · Jets

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