luckadjusted

Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022

Packers at Eagles, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Packers 40–33, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 3.3 points to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:56 left): the Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 8, worth 27 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 33
Philadelphia Eagles 40

November 27, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −6.5

Luck index +41 Eagles lucky · −41 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 4, Eagles win 6.

  1. 1 GB 37 PHI 17
  2. 2 GB 24 PHI 13
  3. 3 GB 30 PHI 24
  4. 4 GB 30 PHI 28
  5. 5 GB 23 PHI 25
  6. 6 GB 44 PHI 49
  7. 7 GB 24 PHI 32
  8. 8 GB 26 PHI 38
  9. 9 GB 24 PHI 41
  10. 10 GB 13 PHI 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 41% of them, Eagles 59%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+8.7%
Packers by 9–1612.3%
Packers by 1–817.8%
Level after regulation3.4%
Eagles by 1–826.5%
Eagles by 9–1615.7%
Eagles by 17+15.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 1.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 29 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Elliott, 31 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Elliott, 54 yds made · 51% expected
  • M. Crosby, 33 yds made · 91% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:50 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:09 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:32 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% PHI GB: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:37 The Packers converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +11% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:53 The Eagles converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +12% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q2 8:56 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Eagles fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +27% GB PHI: Punt
7 Q2 3:01 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% PHI GB: Punt
8 Q2 0:54 The Eagles converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Romeo Doubs (GB WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • De'Vondre Campbell (GB LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Eric Stokes (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Rashan Gary (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 58% · Eagles 42%

Final margin
Eagles by 7
Luck in points
8.4 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Packers 41% · Eagles 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Packers · Eagles

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