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NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022

Packers at Eagles, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Packers 40–33, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:56 left): the Eagles fumbled and the Packers recovered, worth 9 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 33
Philadelphia Eagles 40

November 27, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −6.5

Luck index +34 Eagles lucky · −34 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 3, Eagles win 7.

  1. 1 GB 38 PHI 23
  2. 2 GB 24 PHI 17
  3. 3 GB 19 PHI 16
  4. 4 GB 28 PHI 30
  5. 5 GB 27 PHI 31
  6. 6 GB 30 PHI 37
  7. 7 GB 23 PHI 34
  8. 8 GB 30 PHI 44
  9. 9 GB 20 PHI 38
  10. 10 GB 14 PHI 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 34% of them, Eagles 66%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+5.2%
Packers by 9–168.6%
Packers by 1–816.6%
Level after regulation3.6%
Eagles by 1–824.6%
Eagles by 9–1618.5%
Eagles by 17+22.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.8 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 7, without the luck Eagles by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 29 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Elliott, 31 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Elliott, 54 yds made · 51% expected
  • M. Crosby, 33 yds made · 91% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 4 for 35 yards, Eagles 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 10:06 Low Block on the Packers (Adrian Amos), 15 yards +4% PHI +1.8 pts
Q2 8:38 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +2% PHI +0.9 pts
Q2 0:30 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Rasul Douglas), 5 yards +1% PHI +0.2 pts
Q3 7:43 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +1.0 pts
Q3 7:15 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles, 15 yards +2% GB +1.8 pts
Q3 5:36 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Linval Joseph), 5 yards 0% GB +0.8 pts
Q3 2:17 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.1 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:50 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:09 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +6% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:37 The Packers converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +9% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q2 8:56 The Eagles fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% GB PHI: Punt
5 Q2 3:01 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +7% PHI GB: Punt
6 Q2 2:00 A. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 61 catchable balls before this +5% GB PHI: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:56 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:54 The Eagles converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Romeo Doubs (GB WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • De'Vondre Campbell (GB LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Eric Stokes (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Rashan Gary (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 42% · Eagles 58%

Final margin
Eagles by 7
Luck in points
5.9 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Packers 34% · Eagles 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Packers · Eagles

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