luckadjusted

Week 1 2022 · September 11, 2022

49ers at Bears, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the 49ers 19–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bears win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 9.3 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:52 left): the 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 23 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 10
Chicago Bears 19

September 11, 2022 · Soldier Field · Closing line: 49ers −6.5

Luck index +58 Bears lucky · −58 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 6, Bears win 4.

  1. 1 SF 31 CHI 9
  2. 2 SF 24 CHI 9
  3. 3 SF 14 CHI 3
  4. 4 SF 16 CHI 9
  5. 5 SF 7 CHI 3
  6. 6 SF 15 CHI 13
  7. 7 SF 10 CHI 13
  8. 8 SF 10 CHI 16
  9. 9 SF 13 CHI 23
  10. 10 SF 7 CHI 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 58% of them, Bears 42%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+12.8%
49ers by 9–1617.3%
49ers by 1–827.2%
Level after regulation2.7%
Bears by 1–821.1%
Bears by 9–1613.0%
Bears by 17+5.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bears by 9. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 4.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Gould, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:24 The 49ers fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CHI SF: Punt
2 Q1 7:38 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% SF CHI: Punt
3 Q3 13:28 The 49ers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% SF SF: Field goal
4 Q3 5:45 The Bears converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +16% CHI CHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 13:37 Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +10% CHI CHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 12:50 The Bears converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +12% CHI CHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 11:55 The 49ers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% SF SF: Turnover
8 Q4 9:52 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedThe 49ers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +23% CHI SF: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • George Kittle (SF TE), out · 1.2 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (SF FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Daniel Brunskill (SF G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 69% · Bears 31%

Final margin
Bears by 9
Luck in points
13.7 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 4.7
Replay with same day's form
49ers 58% · Bears 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · 49ers · Bears

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