2022 season · final
San Francisco 49ers, 2022: game by game
The 49ers went 13–4 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.7 wins. Luck added 1.3: the 8th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–1.
Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.7.
Every game
How often the 49ers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Bears | L 10–19 | 57% | −57 |
| Week 2 | vs Seahawks | W 27–7 | 76% | +25 |
| Week 3 | @ Broncos | L 10–11 | 57% | −57 |
| Week 4 | vs Rams | W 24–9 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 5 | @ Panthers | W 37–15 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 6 | @ Falcons | L 14–28 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 7 | vs Chiefs | L 23–44 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 8 | @ Rams | W 31–14 | 50% | +50 |
| Week 10 | vs Chargers | W 22–16 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 11 | vs Cardinals | W 38–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 12 | vs Saints | W 13–0 | 37% | +63 |
| Week 13 | vs Dolphins | W 33–17 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 14 | vs Buccaneers | W 35–7 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 15 | @ Seahawks | W 21–13 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 16 | vs Commanders | W 37–20 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 17 | @ Raiders | W 37–34 | 52% | +48 |
| Week 18 | vs Cardinals | W 38–13 | 95% | +5 |
| Wild Card | vs Seahawks | W 41–23 | 83% | +17 |
| Divisional round | vs Cowboys | W 19–12 | 77% | +23 |
| NFC Championship | @ Eagles | L 7–31 | 9% | −9 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the 49ers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.47 | +6.6 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.10 | +4.3 |
| Drops | +0.09 | −0.9 |
| Judgment calls | +0.02 | +4.7 |
| Kicks | −0.06 | +4.2 |
| Injuries | −0.25 | −4.8 |