luckadjusted

NFC Championship 2022 · January 29, 2023

49ers at Eagles, NFC Championship 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the 49ers 31–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:28 left): the Eagles converted 4th & 3, worth 13 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 7
Philadelphia Eagles 31

January 29, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −2.5

Luck index +9 Eagles about even · −9 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 1, Eagles win 9.

  1. 1 SF 30 PHI 24
  2. 2 SF 21 PHI 24
  3. 3 SF 14 PHI 19
  4. 4 SF 5 PHI 13
  5. 5 SF 7 PHI 17
  6. 6 SF 7 PHI 20
  7. 7 SF 20 PHI 37
  8. 8 SF 0 PHI 20
  9. 9 SF 0 PHI 24
  10. 10 SF 7 PHI 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 9% of them, Eagles 91%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+0.4%
49ers by 9–162.1%
49ers by 1–85.4%
Level after regulation1.9%
Eagles by 1–817.5%
Eagles by 9–1624.9%
Eagles by 17+47.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 9.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:36 The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:28 The Eagles converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +13% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:03 The 49ers fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% PHI SF: Punt
4 Q1 5:34 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% SF PHI: Punt
5 Q2 7:13 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +4% SF PHI: Touchdown
6 Q2 6:39 The Eagles converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +5% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q2 5:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Jimmie Ward), 3 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 4071 snaps before, position avg 1 per 548 +5% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:19 The 49ers fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PHI SF: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Arryn Siposs (PHI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 6% · Eagles 94%

Final margin
Eagles by 24
Luck in points
14.3 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 9.7
Replay with same day's form
49ers 9% · Eagles 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

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