luckadjusted

2021 season · final

San Francisco 49ers, 2021: game by game

The 49ers went 10–7 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.3 wins. Luck cost them 1.3: the 5th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–5.

Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 2.1.

Every game

How often the 49ers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Lions W 41–33 57% +43
Week 2 @ Eagles W 17–11 47% +53
Week 3 vs Packers L 28–30 12% −12
Week 4 vs Seahawks L 21–28 92% −92
Week 5 @ Cardinals L 10–17 72% −72
Week 7 vs Colts L 18–30 54% −54
Week 8 @ Bears W 33–22 96% +4
Week 9 vs Cardinals L 17–31 16% −16
Week 10 vs Rams W 31–10 49% +51
Week 11 @ Jaguars W 30–10 91% +9
Week 12 vs Vikings W 34–26 83% +17
Week 13 @ Seahawks L 23–30 98% −98
Week 14 @ Bengals W 26–23 37% +63
Week 15 vs Falcons W 31–13 89% +11
Week 16 @ Titans L 17–20 67% −67
Week 17 vs Texans W 23–7 99% +1
Week 18 @ Rams W 27–24 75% +25
Wild Card @ Cowboys W 23–17 87% +13
Divisional round @ Packers W 13–10 76% +24
NFC Championship @ Rams L 17–20 44% −44

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the 49ers’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Kicks+7.6+0.44
Rest+1.6+0.09
3rd & 4th downs+0.4+0.02
Fumble bounces−11.0−0.65
Injuries−19.8−1.17
Judgment calls−31.9−1.88