2021 season · final
San Francisco 49ers, 2021: game by game
The 49ers went 10–7 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.4 wins. Luck cost them 1.4: the 5th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–5.
Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 2.1.
Every game
How often the 49ers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Lions | W 41–33 | 58% | +42 |
| Week 2 | @ Eagles | W 17–11 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 3 | vs Packers | L 28–30 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 4 | vs Seahawks | L 21–28 | 91% | −91 |
| Week 5 | @ Cardinals | L 10–17 | 73% | −73 |
| Week 7 | vs Colts | L 18–30 | 54% | −54 |
| Week 8 | @ Bears | W 33–22 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 9 | vs Cardinals | L 17–31 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 10 | vs Rams | W 31–10 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 11 | @ Jaguars | W 30–10 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 12 | vs Vikings | W 34–26 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 13 | @ Seahawks | L 23–30 | 98% | −98 |
| Week 14 | @ Bengals | W 26–23 | 38% | +63 |
| Week 15 | vs Falcons | W 31–13 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 16 | @ Titans | L 17–20 | 67% | −67 |
| Week 17 | vs Texans | W 23–7 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 18 | @ Rams | W 27–24 | 75% | +25 |
| Wild Card | @ Cowboys | W 23–17 | 87% | +13 |
| Divisional round | @ Packers | W 13–10 | 78% | +22 |
| NFC Championship | @ Rams | L 17–20 | 41% | −41 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the 49ers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Rest | +0.04 | +1.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.14 | +0.7 |
| Kicks | −0.28 | +7.7 |
| Injuries | −0.32 | −14.9 |
| Judgment calls | −0.42 | −15.6 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.49 | −14.1 |