Wild Card 2021 · January 16, 2022
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
49ers at Cowboys, Wild Card 2021: who deserved to win?
The 49ers beat the Cowboys 23–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 9 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Cowboys.
An off day for the Cowboys: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the 49ers they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Cowboys were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:49 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 11, worth 11 points of win probability to the 49ers.
Final
 San Francisco 49ers | 23 |
|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 49ers about even · −13 Cowboys
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. 49ers win 9, Cowboys win 1.
- 1 SF 37 DAL 6
- 2 SF 30 DAL 7
- 3 SF 33 DAL 14
- 4 SF 33 DAL 17
- 5 SF 30 DAL 17
- 6 SF 26 DAL 16
- 7 SF 33 DAL 27
- 8 SF 14 DAL 10
- 9 SF 19 DAL 17
- 10 SF 31 DAL 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Cowboys
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the 49ers they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for the Cowboys: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.16 | +0.17 | worse by 0.01 |
| 49ers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.13 | +0.07 | better by 0.20 |
| Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained | −0.13 | +0.15 | worse by 0.27 |
| Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.16 | +0.11 | worse by 0.04 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
49ers win 87% of them, Cowboys 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| 49ers by 17+ | 41.4% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 23.8% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 20.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 8.8% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Cowboys by 17+ | 1.0% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was 49ers by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 1.7.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Gould, 53 yds made · 67% expected
- R. Gould, 40 yds made · 88% expected
- R. Gould, 52 yds made · 69% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 51 yds made · 72% expected
When it happened
Cowboys’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:58 | R. Gould made 53-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 18 of 28 from 45+ before | +6% SF | SF: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 3:35 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +10% SF | SF: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 12:47 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% SF | SF: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 5:24 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +9% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 1:51 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +6% DAL | DAL: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 12:34 | Roughing the Kicker on the 49ers (Mark Nzeocha), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 562 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 | +6% DAL | DAL: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 8:08 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +6% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:49 | The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +11% SF | DAL: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Keanu Neal (DAL LB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
49ers 46% · Cowboys 54%
- Final margin
- 49ers by 6
- Luck in points
- 7.7 for the 49ers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- 49ers 87% · Cowboys 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2021 games · 
49ers · 
Cowboys
More from Wild Card 2021
- Raiders at Bengals CIN 26–19 · replay 70% for the winner
- Patriots at Bills BUF 47–17 · replay 94% for the winner
- Eagles at Buccaneers TB 31–15 · replay 89% for the winner
- Steelers at Chiefs KC 42–21 · replay 99% for the winner
- Cardinals at Rams LA 34–11 · replay 95% for the winner