luckadjusted

Wild Card 2021 · January 16, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Buccaneers, Wild Card 2021: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Eagles 31–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.1 points to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 71% favorites.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

January 16, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −7.5

Luck index +11 Buccaneers about even · −11 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 1, Buccaneers win 9.

  1. 1 PHI 42 TB 34
  2. 2 PHI 41 TB 43
  3. 3 PHI 27 TB 33
  4. 4 PHI 17 TB 26
  5. 5 PHI 26 TB 38
  6. 6 PHI 29 TB 44
  7. 7 PHI 17 TB 34
  8. 8 PHI 20 TB 42
  9. 9 PHI 10 TB 38
  10. 10 PHI 0 TB 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 11% of them, Buccaneers 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+1.0%
Eagles by 9–162.7%
Eagles by 1–86.9%
Level after regulation1.5%
Buccaneers by 1–816.0%
Buccaneers by 9–1621.2%
Buccaneers by 17+50.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 18.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:56 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:40 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +4% TB PHI: Punt
3 Q1 7:09 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +4% PHI TB: Punt
4 Q2 7:12 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +3% PHI PHI: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 2:36 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% PHI TB: Punt
6 Q2 1:43 The Eagles converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +5% PHI PHI: Turnover
7 Q2 0:31 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +3% PHI TB: Punt
8 Q3 13:08 The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +4% PHI PHI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Cyril Grayson (TB WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Leonard Fournette (TB RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Sweat (PHI DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jack Driscoll (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nate Herbig (PHI G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 0% · Buccaneers 100%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 16
Luck in points
2.1 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 18.1
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 11% · Buccaneers 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2021 games · Eagles · Buccaneers

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