2021 season · final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2021: game by game
The Buccaneers went 13–4 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 14.7 wins. Luck cost them 1.7: the 2nd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–0.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.5.
Every game
How often the Buccaneers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Cowboys | W 31–29 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 2 | vs Falcons | W 48–25 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 3 | @ Rams | L 24–34 | 66% | −66 |
| Week 4 | @ Patriots | W 19–17 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 5 | vs Dolphins | W 45–17 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 6 | @ Eagles | W 28–22 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 7 | vs Bears | W 38–3 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 8 | @ Saints | L 27–36 | 78% | −78 |
| Week 10 | @ Washington | L 19–29 | 82% | −82 |
| Week 11 | vs Giants | W 30–10 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 12 | @ Colts | W 38–31 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 13 | @ Falcons | W 30–17 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 14 | vs Bills | W 33–27 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 15 | vs Saints | L 0–9 | 84% | −84 |
| Week 16 | @ Panthers | W 32–6 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 17 | @ Jets | W 28–24 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 18 | vs Panthers | W 41–17 | 99% | +1 |
| Wild Card | vs Eagles | W 31–15 | 90% | +10 |
| Divisional round | vs Rams | L 27–30 | 58% | −58 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Buccaneers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.66 | −7.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.14 | +7.0 |
| Injuries | −0.17 | −5.5 |
| Judgment calls | −0.27 | −11.9 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.31 | −7.4 |