luckadjusted

2021 season · final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2021: game by game

The Buccaneers went 13–4 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 14.7 wins. Luck cost them 1.7: the 3rd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–0.

Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.5.

Every game

How often the Buccaneers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Cowboys W 31–29 74% +26
Week 2 vs Falcons W 48–25 86% +14
Week 3 @ Rams L 24–34 66% −66
Week 4 @ Patriots W 19–17 77% +23
Week 5 vs Dolphins W 45–17 99% +1
Week 6 @ Eagles W 28–22 85% +15
Week 7 vs Bears W 38–3 99% +1
Week 8 @ Saints L 27–36 78% −78
Week 10 @ Washington L 19–29 83% −83
Week 11 vs Giants W 30–10 97% +3
Week 12 @ Colts W 38–31 91% +9
Week 13 @ Falcons W 30–17 97% +3
Week 14 vs Bills W 33–27 73% +27
Week 15 vs Saints L 0–9 83% −83
Week 16 @ Panthers W 32–6 96% +4
Week 17 @ Jets W 28–24 89% +11
Week 18 vs Panthers W 41–17 99% +1
Wild Card vs Eagles W 31–15 89% +11
Divisional round vs Rams L 27–30 57% −57

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Buccaneers’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
3rd & 4th downs+6.5+0.38
Fumble bounces−6.3−0.37
Kicks−7.1−0.42
Injuries−7.2−0.42
Judgment calls−22.9−1.35