luckadjusted

Week 16 2021 · December 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Panthers, Week 16 2021: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Panthers 32–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 10 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 1.7 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 80% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:48 left): the Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 11 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32
Carolina Panthers 6

December 26, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −11.5

Luck index +4 Buccaneers about even · −4 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 10, Panthers win 0.

  1. 1 TB 43 CAR 6
  2. 2 TB 39 CAR 10
  3. 3 TB 41 CAR 16
  4. 4 TB 32 CAR 10
  5. 5 TB 26 CAR 7
  6. 6 TB 22 CAR 6
  7. 7 TB 33 CAR 20
  8. 8 TB 20 CAR 10
  9. 9 TB 26 CAR 20
  10. 10 TB 13 CAR 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 96% of them, Panthers 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+71.5%
Buccaneers by 9–1617.3%
Buccaneers by 1–87.1%
Level after regulation0.7%
Panthers by 1–82.8%
Panthers by 9–160.6%
Panthers by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 26. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 26.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • L. Hajrullahu, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Succop, 36 yds made · 90% expected
  • L. Hajrullahu, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Succop, 43 yds made · 81% expected
  • R. Succop, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Succop, 48 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:17 The Panthers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +5% CAR CAR: Field goal
2 Q1 3:09 The Panthers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% CAR CAR: Turnover
3 Q1 1:48 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +11% TB CAR: Field goal
4 Q1 0:59 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Antonio Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 629 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +8% CAR CAR: Field goal
5 Q2 15:00 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% TB TB: Field goal
6 Q2 8:02 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +5% TB CAR: Field goal
7 Q2 7:25 L. Hajrullahu made 29-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +4% CAR CAR: Punt
8 Q3 8:39 R. Succop made 21-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +5% CAR TB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Cameron Erving (CAR T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Matt Paradis (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Pat Elflein (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Zylstra (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Zane Gonzalez (CAR K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dennis Daley (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mike Evans (TB WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Lavonte David (TB LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jason Pierre-Paul (TB DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Leonard Fournette (TB RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Bradley Pinion (TB P), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 100% · Panthers 0%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 26
Luck in points
0.4 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 26.4
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 96% · Panthers 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2021 games · Buccaneers · Panthers

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