luckadjusted

Week 16 2021 · December 25, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Packers, Week 16 2021: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Browns 24–22, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Packers win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:50 left): the Browns were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 26 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Cleveland Browns 22
Green Bay Packers 24

December 25, 2021 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −7.5

Luck index +52 Packers lucky · −52 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 5, Packers win 5.

  1. 1 CLE 38 GB 16
  2. 2 CLE 45 GB 31
  3. 3 CLE 26 GB 16
  4. 4 CLE 23 GB 17
  5. 5 CLE 19 GB 17
  6. 6 CLE 22 GB 24
  7. 7 CLE 19 GB 23
  8. 8 CLE 27 GB 34
  9. 9 CLE 14 GB 26
  10. 10 CLE 10 GB 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 52% of them, Packers 48%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+10.7%
Browns by 9–1614.5%
Browns by 1–822.8%
Level after regulation5.7%
Packers by 1–822.9%
Packers by 9–1613.2%
Packers by 17+10.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 6.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 32 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Naggar, 37 yds made · 88% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:19 The Packers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +9% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q1 0:43 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +15% GB CLE: Touchdown
3 Q2 10:50 The Packers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q2 7:03 The Browns’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +6% GB CLE: Turnover
5 Q2 2:41 The Browns converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +7% CLE CLE: Turnover
6 Q4 5:04 The Browns converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +10% CLE CLE: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:17 The Browns converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% CLE CLE: Turnover
8 Q4 0:50 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +26% GB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Randall Cobb (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Billy Turner (GB T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Elgton Jenkins (GB G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kingsley Keke (GB DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Robert Tonyan (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (CLE DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • John Johnson (CLE FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • J.C. Tretter (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Troy Hill (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chase McLaughlin (CLE K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ronnie Harrison (CLE SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Elliott (CLE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Malik McDowell (CLE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 5% · Packers 95%

Final margin
Packers by 2
Luck in points
4.2 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 6.2
Replay with same day's form
Browns 52% · Packers 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2021 games · Browns · Packers

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