luckadjusted

Week 16 2021 · December 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Cowboys, Week 16 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat Washington 56–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:27 left): Return touchdown by the Cowboys, worth 9 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Washington Football Team 14
Dallas Cowboys 56

December 26, 2021 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −10.5

Luck index +13 Cowboys about even · −13 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 1, Cowboys win 9.

  1. 1 WAS 30 DAL 24
  2. 2 WAS 27 DAL 29
  3. 3 WAS 19 DAL 23
  4. 4 WAS 26 DAL 33
  5. 5 WAS 19 DAL 29
  6. 6 WAS 17 DAL 30
  7. 7 WAS 9 DAL 24
  8. 8 WAS 20 DAL 40
  9. 9 WAS 17 DAL 43
  10. 10 WAS 6 DAL 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 13% of them, Cowboys 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 42.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+1.1%
Washington by 9–162.7%
Washington by 1–87.1%
Level after regulation1.9%
Cowboys by 1–817.8%
Cowboys by 9–1620.6%
Cowboys by 17+48.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 42. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 31.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:50 The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:47 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:25 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +3% DAL WAS: Punt
4 Q1 3:49 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +3% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q1 2:27 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedReturn touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +9% DAL WAS: Touchdown
6 Q2 13:41 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +4% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 10:40 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +2% WAS DAL: Touchdown
8 Q2 2:35 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +2% DAL DAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jourdan Lewis (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Chase Young (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Landon Collins (WAS SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Brandon Scherff (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Brian Johnson (WAS K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyler Larsen (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jamin Davis (WAS LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 42
Luck in points
10.5 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 31.5
Replay with same day's form
Washington 13% · Cowboys 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2021 games · Washington · Cowboys

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