luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2021 · December 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Cowboys, Week 16 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat Washington 56–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 78% favorites.

Final

Washington Football Team 14
Dallas Cowboys 56

December 26, 2021 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −10.5

Luck index +13 Cowboys about even · −13 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington wins 1, Cowboys win 9.

  1. 1 WAS 37 DAL 30
  2. 2 WAS 13 DAL 16
  3. 3 WAS 38 DAL 44
  4. 4 WAS 22 DAL 31
  5. 5 WAS 23 DAL 34
  6. 6 WAS 23 DAL 37
  7. 7 WAS 26 DAL 42
  8. 8 WAS 11 DAL 31
  9. 9 WAS 13 DAL 38
  10. 10 WAS 16 DAL 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington wins 13% of them, Cowboys 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 42.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+0.9%
Washington by 9–163.2%
Washington by 1–87.7%
Level after regulation2.1%
Cowboys by 1–817.3%
Cowboys by 9–1620.8%
Cowboys by 17+48.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.3 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 42, without the luck Cowboys by 33.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Washington 1 for 13 yards, Cowboys 3 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:55 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Jayron Kearse), 5 yards 0% WAS +0.3 pts
Q2 9:52 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Osa Odighizuwa), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.1 pts
Q2 0:18 Unnecessary Roughness on Washington (Bobby McCain), 13 yards 0% DAL +1.6 pts
Q3 3:12 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Kelvin Joseph), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.6 pts

Washington penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while Washington was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:01 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +2% DAL DAL: Punt
2 Q1 12:20 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +2% DAL DAL: Punt
3 Q1 8:50 The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:47 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +3% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q1 6:25 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +3% DAL WAS: Punt
6 Q1 3:49 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +3% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q1 2:27 Return touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +5% DAL DAL: Opp touchdown
8 Q2 13:41 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +2% DAL DAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jourdan Lewis (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Chase Young (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Landon Collins (WAS SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Brandon Scherff (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Brian Johnson (WAS K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyler Larsen (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jamin Davis (WAS LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 42
Luck in points
8.3 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 33.7
Replay with same day's form
Washington 13% · Cowboys 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2021 games · Washington · Cowboys

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