luckadjusted

Week 16 2021 · December 25, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Cardinals, Week 16 2021: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Cardinals 22–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:12 left): M. Prater missed 41-yard field goal, worth 19 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 22
Arizona Cardinals 16

December 25, 2021 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −3

Luck index +39 Colts lucky · −39 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 6, Cardinals win 4.

  1. 1 IND 27 ARI 3
  2. 2 IND 27 ARI 9
  3. 3 IND 33 ARI 20
  4. 4 IND 29 ARI 20
  5. 5 IND 30 ARI 24
  6. 6 IND 23 ARI 21
  7. 7 IND 28 ARI 31
  8. 8 IND 13 ARI 19
  9. 9 IND 0 ARI 13
  10. 10 IND 10 ARI 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 61% of them, Cardinals 39%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+12.8%
Colts by 9–1617.7%
Colts by 1–828.9%
Level after regulation3.3%
Cardinals by 1–818.9%
Cardinals by 9–1613.1%
Cardinals by 17+5.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 2.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 51 yds missed · 72% expected
  • M. Badgley, 53 yds missed · 61% expected
  • M. Badgley, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • M. Badgley, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • M. Prater, 41 yds missed · 87% expected
  • M. Prater, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:20 The Colts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +10% IND IND: Missed field goal
2 Q2 14:14 M. Badgley missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 7 of 19 from 45+ before +11% ARI IND: Punt
3 Q2 10:14 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +12% IND ARI: Safety
4 Q3 5:45 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +12% ARI IND: Field goal
5 Q3 4:02 The Colts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +14% IND IND: Field goal
6 Q4 13:10 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +16% ARI ARI: Missed field goal
7 Q4 11:12 M. Prater missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +19% IND ARI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 6:45 The Colts converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Cardinals (Zach Allen), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1315 snaps before, position avg 1 per 266 +13% IND IND: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DeAndre Hopkins (ARI WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • James Conner (ARI RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Robert Alford (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jordan Phillips (ARI DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Andy Lee (ARI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Quenton Nelson (IND G), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ryan Kelly (IND C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Zach Pascal (IND WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Khari Willis (IND SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Andrew Sendejo (IND FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rock Ya-Sin (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mark Glowinski (IND G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 33% · Cardinals 67%

Final margin
Colts by 6
Luck in points
8.3 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 2.3
Replay with same day's form
Colts 61% · Cardinals 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2021 games · Colts · Cardinals

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