luckadjusted

2021 season · final

Indianapolis Colts, 2021: game by game

The Colts went 9–8 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.9 wins. Luck cost them 0.9: the 11th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–5.

Every game

How often the Colts win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Seahawks L 16–28 38% −38
Week 2 vs Rams L 24–27 68% −68
Week 3 @ Titans L 16–25 38% −38
Week 4 @ Dolphins W 27–17 88% +12
Week 5 @ Ravens L 25–31 31% −31
Week 6 vs Texans W 31–3 88% +12
Week 7 @ 49ers W 30–18 46% +54
Week 8 vs Titans L 31–34 62% −62
Week 9 vs Jets W 45–30 82% +18
Week 10 vs Jaguars W 23–17 71% +29
Week 11 @ Bills W 41–15 59% +41
Week 12 vs Buccaneers L 31–38 9% −9
Week 13 @ Texans W 31–0 100% 0
Week 15 vs Patriots W 27–17 75% +25
Week 16 @ Cardinals W 22–16 61% +39
Week 17 vs Raiders L 20–23 51% −51
Week 18 @ Jaguars L 11–26 18% −18

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Colts’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Judgment calls+23.6+1.39
Kicks+4.8+0.28
Injuries+3.0+0.18
Fumble bounces+1.6+0.09
Rest−0.4−0.02
3rd & 4th downs−3.1−0.18