Week 2 2021 · September 19, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Rams at Colts, Week 2 2021: who deserved to win?
The Rams beat the Colts 27–24, but the Colts played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 2.2 points to the Rams.
The Rams won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Colts they would win 63% of the time; with this day’s form, 32%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Rams were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:17 left): the Rams were stopped on 4th & 6, worth 39 points of win probability to the Colts.
Final
 Los Angeles Rams | 27 |
|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +68 Rams very lucky · −68 Colts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rams win 3, Colts win 7.
- 1 LA 27 IND 12
- 2 LA 16 IND 9
- 3 LA 23 IND 20
- 4 LA 21 IND 24
- 5 LA 27 IND 31
- 6 LA 24 IND 31
- 7 LA 10 IND 20
- 8 LA 31 IND 45
- 9 LA 16 IND 33
- 10 LA 3 IND 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Rams won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Colts they would win 63% of the time; with this day’s form, 32%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Rams: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams offenseEPA per play gained | +0.22 | +0.13 | better by 0.09 |
| Rams defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.06 | better by 0.03 |
| Colts offenseEPA per play gained | +0.03 | +0.14 | worse by 0.10 |
| Colts defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.22 | +0.13 | worse by 0.08 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rams win 32% of them, Colts 68%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rams by 17+ | 3.6% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 9.6% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 18.3% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 28.0% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 19.8% |
| Colts by 17+ | 18.7% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Rams by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 2.9.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Blankenship, 48 yds made · 75% expected
- M. Gay, 34 yds made · 94% expected
- R. Blankenship, 46 yds made · 78% expected
- R. Blankenship, 35 yds made · 93% expected
- M. Gay, 38 yds made · 91% expected
When it happened
Colts’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:20 | The Colts were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +10% LA | IND: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 1:33 | The Colts converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +10% IND | IND: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 10:14 | The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +17% LA | IND: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 0:02 | R. Blankenship made 46-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 2 of 5 from 45+ before | +9% IND | IND: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 3:46 | The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +12% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 14:17 | The Rams were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the ColtsSpecial teams | +39% IND | LA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 2:30 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +10% IND | LA: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 2:27 | M. Gay made 38-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him | +13% LA | LA: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Xavier Rhodes (IND CB), out · 1.0 pts
- T.Y. Hilton (IND WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Braden Smith (IND T/G), out · 0.4 pts
- Cam Akers (LA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rams 88% · Colts 12%
- Final margin
- Rams by 3
- Luck in points
- 0.1 for the Rams
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rams by 2.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Rams 32% · Colts 68% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2021 games · 
Rams · 
Colts
More from Week 2 2021
- Giants at Washington WAS 30–29 · replay 61% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins BUF 35–0 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bengals at Bears CHI 20–17 · replay 37% for the winner
- Broncos at Jaguars DEN 23–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- Texans at Browns CLE 31–21 · replay 78% for the winner
- Raiders at Steelers LV 26–17 · replay 80% for the winner
- Patriots at Jets NE 25–6 · replay 71% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers CAR 26–7 · replay 79% for the winner
- 49ers at Eagles SF 17–11 · replay 47% for the winner
- Falcons at Buccaneers TB 48–25 · replay 86% for the winner
- Vikings at Cardinals ARI 34–33 · replay 71% for the winner
- Cowboys at Chargers DAL 20–17 · replay 60% for the winner
- Titans at Seahawks TEN 33–30 · replay 65% for the winner
- Chiefs at Ravens BAL 36–35 · replay 67% for the winner
- Lions at Packers GB 35–17 · replay 90% for the winner