Week 2 2021 · September 19, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Raiders at Steelers, Week 2 2021: who deserved to win?
The Raiders beat the Steelers 26–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.
An off day for the Steelers: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Steelers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:22 left): Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Las Vegas Raiders | 26 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Raiders about even · −21 Steelers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Raiders win 8, Steelers win 2.
- 1 LV 45 PIT 17
- 2 LV 30 PIT 9
- 3 LV 44 PIT 27
- 4 LV 37 PIT 24
- 5 LV 34 PIT 24
- 6 LV 23 PIT 16
- 7 LV 42 PIT 37
- 8 LV 10 PIT 7
- 9 LV 16 PIT 20
- 10 LV 13 PIT 26
Your call
Did the Raiders earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Steelers
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
39 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders offenseEPA per play gained | +0.23 | +0.16 | better by 0.07 |
| Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.17 | better by 0.11 |
| Steelers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.06 | +0.09 | worse by 0.03 |
| Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.23 | +0.05 | worse by 0.18 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Raiders win 79% of them, Steelers 21%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 9.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Raiders by 17+ | 30.6% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 20.8% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 25.7% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 12.3% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 5.8% |
| Steelers by 17+ | 2.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Carlson, 46 yds made · 79% expected
- D. Carlson, 33 yds made · 94% expected
- D. Carlson, 41 yds made · 87% expected
- C. Boswell, 56 yds made · 67% expected
- D. Carlson, 45 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: Raiders 5 for 40 yards, Steelers 5 for 43 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:28 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers (Ray-Ray McCloud), 8 yards | +1% LV +0.7 pts |
| Q1 4:19 | False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PIT +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:26 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers (JuJu Smith-Schuster), 10 yards | +3% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q2 12:55 | Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Steelers, 15 yards | +5% LV +1.8 pts |
| Q2 11:12 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LV +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% PIT +4.1 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:12 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% PIT +1.0 pts |
| Q3 4:15 | Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Solomon Thomas), 15 yards | +5% PIT +1.5 pts |
| Q3 3:50 | False Start on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LV +0.5 pts |
Raiders penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Steelers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:09 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +10% PIT | PIT: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q2 13:37 | The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +9% LV | PIT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 7:33 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 0:22 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on the Raiders, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +14% PIT | PIT: End of half |
| 5 | Q3 7:08 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +9% LV | LV: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 11:34 | The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 11:23 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 9:44 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +9% LV | LV: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Joe Haden (PIT CB), out · 1.1 pts
- Stephon Tuitt (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Nevin Lawson (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Josh Jacobs (LV RB), out · 0.4 pts
- Nicholas Morrow (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Nick Kwiatkoski (LV LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Denzelle Good (LV G/T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Raiders 90% · Steelers 10%
- Final margin
- Raiders by 9
- Luck in points
- 1.3 for the Raiders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Raiders by 7.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Raiders 79% · Steelers 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2021 games · 
Raiders · 
Steelers
More from Week 2 2021
- Giants at Washington WAS 30–29 · replay 61% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins BUF 35–0 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bengals at Bears CHI 20–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Broncos at Jaguars DEN 23–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- Texans at Browns CLE 31–21 · replay 78% for the winner
- Rams at Colts LA 27–24 · replay 31% for the winner
- Patriots at Jets NE 25–6 · replay 74% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers CAR 26–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- 49ers at Eagles SF 17–11 · replay 49% for the winner
- Falcons at Buccaneers TB 48–25 · replay 86% for the winner
- Vikings at Cardinals ARI 34–33 · replay 72% for the winner
- Cowboys at Chargers DAL 20–17 · replay 62% for the winner
- Titans at Seahawks TEN 33–30 · replay 68% for the winner
- Chiefs at Ravens BAL 36–35 · replay 71% for the winner
- Lions at Packers GB 35–17 · replay 92% for the winner