luckadjusted

Week 2 2021 · September 19, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Steelers, Week 2 2021: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Steelers 26–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 8 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.8 points to the Steelers.

An off day for the Steelers: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 61% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Steelers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:44 left): the Raiders converted 3rd & 10, worth 24 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 26
Pittsburgh Steelers 17

September 19, 2021 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Steelers −5.5

Luck index +20 Raiders about even · −20 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 8, Steelers win 2.

  1. 1 LV 38 PIT 9
  2. 2 LV 31 PIT 10
  3. 3 LV 17 PIT 0
  4. 4 LV 27 PIT 13
  5. 5 LV 23 PIT 13
  6. 6 LV 24 PIT 17
  7. 7 LV 20 PIT 16
  8. 8 LV 16 PIT 14
  9. 9 LV 17 PIT 20
  10. 10 LV 10 PIT 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Steelers

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 61% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%.

41 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Raiders offenseEPA per play gained +0.23 +0.16 better by 0.07
Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed +0.06 +0.17 better by 0.11
Steelers offenseEPA per play gained +0.06 +0.09 worse by 0.03
Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.23 +0.05 worse by 0.18

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 80% of them, Steelers 20%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+29.8%
Raiders by 9–1622.4%
Raiders by 1–826.4%
Level after regulation2.5%
Steelers by 1–810.8%
Steelers by 9–165.9%
Steelers by 17+2.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 9. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 9.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 46 yds made · 78% expected
  • D. Carlson, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Carlson, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. Boswell, 56 yds made · 65% expected
  • D. Carlson, 45 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:09 The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% PIT PIT: Turnover on downs
2 Q2 13:37 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +10% LV PIT: Touchdown
3 Q2 7:33 The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +13% PIT PIT: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:22 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on the Raiders, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +14% PIT PIT: End of half
5 Q3 7:08 The Raiders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +11% LV LV: Touchdown
6 Q4 11:34 The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% PIT PIT: Touchdown
7 Q4 11:23 The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +10% PIT PIT: Touchdown
8 Q4 9:44 The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +24% LV LV: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Haden (PIT CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Stephon Tuitt (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Nevin Lawson (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Josh Jacobs (LV RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nicholas Morrow (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Kwiatkoski (LV LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Denzelle Good (LV G/T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 89% · Steelers 11%

Final margin
Raiders by 9
Luck in points
0.1 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 9.1
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 80% · Steelers 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2021 games · Raiders · Steelers

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