luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2021 · September 16, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Washington, Week 2 2021: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the Giants 30–29, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.

Before kickoff Washington was a 62% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:00 left): D. Hopkins made a 43-yard field goal, worth 15 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

New York Giants 29
Washington Football Team 30

September 16, 2021 · FedExField · Closing line: Washington −4

Luck index +39 Washington lucky · −39 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 4, Washington wins 6.

  1. 1 NYG 34 WAS 13
  2. 2 NYG 34 WAS 22
  3. 3 NYG 24 WAS 17
  4. 4 NYG 20 WAS 17
  5. 5 NYG 35 WAS 37
  6. 6 NYG 20 WAS 25
  7. 7 NYG 23 WAS 31
  8. 8 NYG 20 WAS 31
  9. 9 NYG 24 WAS 40
  10. 10 NYG 17 WAS 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 39% of them, Washington 61%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+6.8%
Giants by 9–1612.3%
Giants by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation3.1%
Washington by 1–827.3%
Washington by 9–1616.4%
Washington by 17+14.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.0 points to the Giants: the final margin was Washington by 1, without the luck Washington by 4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • G. Gano, 47 yds made · 82% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 49 yds made · 73% expected
  • G. Gano, 52 yds made · 74% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Gano, 55 yds made · 72% expected
  • G. Gano, 35 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 43 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 11 for 81 yards, Washington 9 for 80 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:41 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Keion Crossen), 10 yards +3% WAS +0.9 pts
Q1 8:21 Roughing the Passer on Washington (Chase Young), 8 yards +2% NYG +1.3 pts
Q1 3:49 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.8 pts
Q2 9:47 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on Washington, 15 yards +5% NYG +1.4 pts
Q2 8:35 False Start on Washington (Troy Apke), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NYG +0.3 pts
Q2 6:19 Offensive Holding on the Giants (C.J. Board), 10 yards +3% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 6:04 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (William Jackson III), 9 yards +2% NYG +0.9 pts
Q3 13:51 Neutral Zone Infraction on Washington (Chase Young), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.9 pts
Q3 11:34 Defensive Holding on Washington (Landon Collins), 5 yards +3% NYG +1.2 pts
Q3 9:07 Illegal Double-Team Block on Washington (Jaret Patterson), 10 yards +1% NYG +0.9 pts
Q3 7:25 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.6 pts
Q3 6:44 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (Kendall Fuller), 13 yards +10% NYG +2.5 pts
Q3 4:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (James Bradberry), 21 yards +6% WAS +1.4 pts
Q3 2:30 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% NYG +2.0 pts
Q3 0:26 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards +2% WAS +0.7 pts
Q4 10:44 Defensive Holding on the Giants (James Bradberry), 5 yards +3% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 5:36 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% WAS +0.7 pts
Q4 5:36 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.8 pts
Q4 0:39 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Giants (Lorenzo Carter), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.2 pts
Q4 0:05 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Dexter Lawrence), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% WAS +0.6 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Washington’s chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while Washington was ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:45 The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% NYG NYG: Touchdown
2 Q3 6:44 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (Kendall Fuller), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1689 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +10% NYG NYG: Touchdown
3 Q3 5:19 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% NYG NYG: Touchdown
4 Q3 2:30 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% NYG NYG: Field goal
5 Q3 1:35 D. Hopkins made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 13 of 20 from 45+ before +9% WAS WAS: Field goal
6 Q4 1:16 Washington converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +9% WAS WAS: Field goal
7 Q4 0:28 Washington converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +13% WAS WAS: Field goal
8 Q4 0:00 D. Hopkins made a 43-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +15% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Evan Engram (NYG TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Shane Lemieux (NYG OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Shane Lemieux (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 18% · Washington 82%

Final margin
Washington by 1
Luck in points
3.0 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 4.0
Replay with same day's form
Giants 39% · Washington 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2021 games · Giants · Washington

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