luckadjusted

Week 17 2021 · January 2, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Colts, Week 17 2021: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Colts 23–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Raiders win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.4 points to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Colts were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:54 left): the Raiders converted 3rd & 10, worth 18 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 23
Indianapolis Colts 20

January 2, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −8.5

Luck index +51 Raiders lucky · −51 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 5, Colts win 5.

  1. 1 LV 34 IND 13
  2. 2 LV 24 IND 10
  3. 3 LV 23 IND 14
  4. 4 LV 16 IND 10
  5. 5 LV 19 IND 17
  6. 6 LV 14 IND 16
  7. 7 LV 12 IND 17
  8. 8 LV 17 IND 26
  9. 9 LV 10 IND 24
  10. 10 LV 13 IND 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 49% of them, Colts 51%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+9.7%
Raiders by 9–1614.5%
Raiders by 1–822.2%
Level after regulation5.9%
Colts by 1–822.9%
Colts by 9–1615.2%
Colts by 17+9.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 2.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 47 yds made · 80% expected
  • M. Badgley, 46 yds made · 71% expected
  • D. Carlson, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • M. Badgley, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • D. Carlson, 33 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:11 M. Badgley made 46-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 7 of 20 from 45+ before +8% IND IND: Punt
2 Q3 2:03 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders (Tyron Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 408 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +11% IND IND: Punt
3 Q4 11:24 The Raiders converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +17% LV LV: Touchdown
4 Q4 9:12 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% LV LV: Field goal
5 Q4 6:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders, 11 yardsJudgment calls +13% IND IND: Field goal
6 Q4 4:46 The Colts converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +8% IND IND: Field goal
7 Q4 0:54 The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +18% LV LV: Field goal
8 Q4 0:02 D. Carlson made 33-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +15% LV –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Eric Fisher (IND T), out · 1.3 pts
  • Andrew Sendejo (IND FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Luke Rhodes (IND LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Darren Waller (LV TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Johnathan Abram (LV SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Johnathan Hankins (LV NT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 41% · Colts 59%

Final margin
Raiders by 3
Luck in points
5.0 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 2.0
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 49% · Colts 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2021 games · Raiders · Colts

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