Week 17 2021 · January 2, 2022
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Lions at Seahawks, Week 17 2021: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Lions 51–29, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:44 left): the Lions were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 8 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
Final
 Detroit Lions | 29 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 51 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Seahawks about even · −14 Lions
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lions win 1, Seahawks win 9.
- 1 DET 38 SEA 31
- 2 DET 27 SEA 30
- 3 DET 10 SEA 16
- 4 DET 20 SEA 27
- 5 DET 27 SEA 37
- 6 DET 26 SEA 38
- 7 DET 31 SEA 46
- 8 DET 16 SEA 36
- 9 DET 26 SEA 50
- 10 DET 3 SEA 33
Your call
Did the Seahawks earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lions win 14% of them, Seahawks 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lions by 17+ | 1.4% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 3.4% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 7.6% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 18.4% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 21.0% |
| Seahawks by 17+ | 46.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Myers, 51 yds made · 68% expected
- R. Patterson, 55 yds missed · 65% expected
- J. Myers, 36 yds made · 92% expected
- J. Myers, 42 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: Lions 4 for 30 yards, Seahawks 5 for 31 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:09 | Defensive Holding on the Lions (Will Harris), 5 yards | 0% SEA +0.2 pts |
| Q2 5:46 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Edmond Robinson), 10 yards | +1% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q3 14:00 | Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Al Woods), 5 yards | 0% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q3 10:34 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SEA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 10:13 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards | 0% SEA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:50 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards | 0% SEA +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:21 | Face Mask on the Seahawks (Jordyn Brooks), 6 yards | 0% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q4 14:14 | False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DET +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:36 | Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Ugo Amadi), 5 yards | 0% DET +0.2 pts |
Lions penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Seahawks’ chance of winning
As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:06 | The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +3% DET | SEA: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:47 | The Lions converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +5% DET | DET: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 10:26 | The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +3% SEA | DET: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q1 9:44 | The Lions were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +8% SEA | DET: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 8:35 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 1:05 | J. Myers made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 15 of 22 from 45+ before | +5% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 11:16 | The Lions converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +5% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 9:56 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +3% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Brandon Shell (SEA T), out · 0.8 pts
- Jamal Adams (SEA SS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Damien Lewis (SEA G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Sidney Jones (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Tre Brown (SEA DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Jared Goff (DET QB), out, replaced by t.boyle · 4.6 pts
- T.J. Hockenson (DET TE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Jerry Jacobs (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Kalif Raymond (DET WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Josh Reynolds (DET WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Amani Oruwariye (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Alex Anzalone (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lions 0% · Seahawks 100%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 22
- Luck in points
- 8.6 for the Seahawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Seahawks by 13.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Lions 14% · Seahawks 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2021 games · 
Lions · 
Seahawks
More from Week 17 2021
- Falcons at Bills BUF 29–15 · replay 72% for the winner
- Jaguars at Patriots NE 50–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Chiefs at Bengals CIN 34–31 · replay 17% for the winner
- Rams at Ravens LA 20–19 · replay 82% for the winner
- Raiders at Colts LV 23–20 · replay 47% for the winner
- Dolphins at Titans TEN 34–3 · replay 88% for the winner
- Giants at Bears CHI 29–3 · replay 90% for the winner
- Eagles at Washington PHI 20–16 · replay 58% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Jets TB 28–24 · replay 89% for the winner
- Broncos at Chargers LAC 34–13 · replay 57% for the winner
- Texans at 49ers SF 23–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Cardinals at Cowboys ARI 25–22 · replay 77% for the winner
- Panthers at Saints NO 18–10 · replay 81% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers GB 37–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Browns at Steelers PIT 26–14 · replay 34% for the winner