Week 17 2021 · January 2, 2022
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Broncos at Chargers, Week 17 2021: who deserved to win?
The Chargers beat the Broncos 34–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Chargers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Chargers.
Before kickoff the Chargers were 72% favorites.
Final
 Denver Broncos | 13 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Chargers | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +43 Chargers lucky · −43 Broncos
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Broncos win 4, Chargers win 6.
- 1 DEN 40 LAC 23
- 2 DEN 24 LAC 14
- 3 DEN 30 LAC 24
- 4 DEN 13 LAC 12
- 5 DEN 10 LAC 12
- 6 DEN 20 LAC 24
- 7 DEN 13 LAC 20
- 8 DEN 13 LAC 23
- 9 DEN 24 LAC 38
- 10 DEN 23 LAC 44
Your call
Did the Chargers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Broncos win 43% of them, Chargers 57%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Broncos by 17+ | 7.8% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 12.8% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 22.8% |
| Level after regulation | 6.5% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 23.9% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 15.5% |
| Chargers by 17+ | 10.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Hopkins, 19 yds made · 99% expected
- B. McManus, 61 yds made · 59% expected
- D. Hopkins, 23 yds made · 98% expected
- B. McManus, 23 yds made · 99% expected
Penalties: Broncos 3 for 23 yards, Chargers 3 for 22 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:45 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Kyle Fuller), 14 yards | +6% LAC +0.8 pts |
| Q1 4:11 | False Start on the Broncos (Noah Fant), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LAC +0.5 pts |
| Q3 1:40 | Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Derwin James), 11 yards | +2% DEN +2.3 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Illegal Formation on the Broncos, 4 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% LAC +4.0 pts |
| Q4 6:55 | Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Justin Jones), 6 yards | 0% DEN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 6:31 | Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Asante Samuel Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DEN +0.5 pts |
Broncos penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Chargers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:45 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Kyle Fuller), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 18 flags in 2959 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +6% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 7:07 | The Broncos were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +5% LAC | DEN: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 2:30 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +4% LAC | LAC: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 6:01 | The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +5% LAC | DEN: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 5:25 | The Broncos were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +4% LAC | DEN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 3:24 | The Broncos fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% LAC | DEN: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 1:25 | The Chargers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +3% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 15:00 | Illegal Formation on the Broncos, 4 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +3% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jared Cook (LAC TE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Drue Tranquill (LAC LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Teddy Bridgewater (DEN QB), out, replaced by d.lock · 4.8 pts
- Bobby Massie (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Ronald Darby (DEN CB), out · 0.7 pts
- Jerry Jeudy (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Tim Patrick (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Calvin Anderson (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Jonathon Cooper (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Bryce Callahan (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Graham Glasgow (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Bradley Chubb (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Baron Browning (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Stephen Weatherly (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Kenny Young (DEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Broncos 0% · Chargers 100%
- Final margin
- Chargers by 21
- Luck in points
- 12.2 for the Chargers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chargers by 8.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Broncos 43% · Chargers 57% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2021 games · 
Broncos · 
Chargers
More from Week 17 2021
- Falcons at Bills BUF 29–15 · replay 72% for the winner
- Jaguars at Patriots NE 50–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Chiefs at Bengals CIN 34–31 · replay 17% for the winner
- Rams at Ravens LA 20–19 · replay 82% for the winner
- Raiders at Colts LV 23–20 · replay 47% for the winner
- Dolphins at Titans TEN 34–3 · replay 88% for the winner
- Giants at Bears CHI 29–3 · replay 90% for the winner
- Eagles at Washington PHI 20–16 · replay 58% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Jets TB 28–24 · replay 89% for the winner
- Texans at 49ers SF 23–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Cardinals at Cowboys ARI 25–22 · replay 77% for the winner
- Panthers at Saints NO 18–10 · replay 81% for the winner
- Lions at Seahawks SEA 51–29 · replay 86% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers GB 37–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Browns at Steelers PIT 26–14 · replay 34% for the winner