Week 3 2021 · September 26, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Colts at Titans, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?
The Titans beat the Colts 25–16, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Colts.
Before kickoff the Titans were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:40 left): the Titans converted 4th & 4, worth 11 points of win probability to the Titans.
Final
 Indianapolis Colts | 16 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Titans lucky · −37 Colts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colts win 4, Titans win 6.
- 1 IND 35 TEN 17
- 2 IND 37 TEN 27
- 3 IND 25 TEN 20
- 4 IND 19 TEN 17
- 5 IND 24 TEN 27
- 6 IND 12 TEN 17
- 7 IND 13 TEN 21
- 8 IND 21 TEN 33
- 9 IND 24 TEN 41
- 10 IND 14 TEN 37
Your call
Did the Titans earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colts win 37% of them, Titans 63%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 9.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colts by 17+ | 4.9% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 9.5% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 21.3% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 25.4% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 19.8% |
| Titans by 17+ | 16.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Blankenship, 43 yds made · 84% expected
- R. Blankenship, 28 yds made · 97% expected
- R. Blankenship, 24 yds made · 98% expected
- R. Bullock, 32 yds made · 95% expected
- R. Blankenship, 51 yds missed · 68% expected
Penalties: Colts 4 for 66 yards, Titans 4 for 24 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:43 | Intentional Grounding on the Colts (Carson Wentz), 10 yards | +3% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q1 1:45 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Khari Willis), 11 yards | +4% TEN +1.9 pts |
| Q2 0:43 | Illegal Contact on the Titans (David Long), 5 yards | +3% IND +0.5 pts |
| Q3 14:20 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Jackrabbit Jenkins), 9 yards | +3% IND +0.7 pts |
| Q3 4:56 | Roughing the Kicker on the Colts (Zaire Franklin), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +7% TEN +2.5 pts |
| Q4 14:14 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Xavier Rhodes), 30 yards | +4% TEN +1.5 pts |
| Q4 12:08 | Defensive Holding on the Titans (Rashaan Evans), 5 yards | +3% IND +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2:34 | Illegal Contact on the Titans (Chris Jackson), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% IND +1.4 pts |
Colts penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:40 | The Titans converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +11% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 10:45 | The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +5% IND | IND: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 7:27 | The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +8% IND | IND: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 5:01 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +5% IND | TEN: Turnover |
| 5 | Q3 4:56 | Roughing the Kicker on the Colts (Zaire Franklin), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 868 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 | +7% TEN | TEN: Turnover |
| 6 | Q3 2:46 | The Titans fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% IND | TEN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 13:01 | The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +9% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 10:28 | The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +5% TEN | IND: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Derick Roberson (TEN OLB), out · 0.3 pts
- Bud Dupree (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
- T.Y. Hilton (IND WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Braden Smith (IND T/G), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colts 13% · Titans 87%
- Final margin
- Titans by 9
- Luck in points
- 3.8 for the Titans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 5.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Colts 37% · Titans 63% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · 
Colts · 
Titans
More from Week 3 2021
- Panthers at Texans CAR 24–9 · replay 76% for the winner
- Cardinals at Jaguars ARI 31–19 · replay 92% for the winner
- Falcons at Giants ATL 17–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Ravens at Lions BAL 19–17 · replay 49% for the winner
- Bears at Browns CLE 26–6 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers CIN 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Chargers at Chiefs LAC 30–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Saints at Patriots NO 28–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Washington at Bills BUF 43–21 · replay 97% for the winner
- Dolphins at Raiders LV 31–28 · replay 93% for the winner
- Jets at Broncos DEN 26–0 · replay 95% for the winner
- Seahawks at Vikings MIN 30–17 · replay 40% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Rams LA 34–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- Packers at 49ers GB 30–28 · replay 90% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys DAL 41–21 · replay 76% for the winner