luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2021 · September 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Bills, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat Washington 43–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:14 left): Illegal Contact on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Washington Football Team 21
Buffalo Bills 43

September 26, 2021 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −7.5

Luck index +3 Bills about even · −3 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington wins 0, Bills win 10.

  1. 1 WAS 20 BUF 23
  2. 2 WAS 28 BUF 35
  3. 3 WAS 17 BUF 27
  4. 4 WAS 17 BUF 31
  5. 5 WAS 19 BUF 36
  6. 6 WAS 10 BUF 30
  7. 7 WAS 6 BUF 29
  8. 8 WAS 10 BUF 36
  9. 9 WAS 6 BUF 36
  10. 10 WAS 17 BUF 58

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington wins 3% of them, Bills 97%. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+0.1%
Washington by 9–160.7%
Washington by 1–82.1%
Level after regulation0.4%
Bills by 1–87.8%
Bills by 9–1616.5%
Bills by 17+72.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.7 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 22, without the luck Bills by 18.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 21 yds made · 97% expected
  • T. Bass, 48 yds made · 67% expected
  • T. Bass, 29 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 5 for 38 yards, Bills 5 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:17 False Start on the Bills (Emmanuel Sanders), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.7 pts
Q1 9:31 Offensive Pass Interference on Washington (J.D. McKissic), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% BUF +2.8 pts
Q1 0:58 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (William Jackson III), 8 yards +5% BUF +1.7 pts
Q2 3:42 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Tyler Matakevich), 10 yards +3% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 1:14 Illegal Contact on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 5 yards, wiping out the play +11% WAS +3.9 pts
Q3 7:09 False Start on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.6 pts
Q3 4:43 Offensive Holding on Washington (John Bates), 10 yards +1% BUF +0.9 pts
Q3 4:37 Offensive Holding on Washington (Logan Thomas), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% BUF +1.4 pts
Q3 3:40 Illegal Forward Pass on Washington (Taylor Heinicke), 5 yards 0% BUF +0.5 pts
Q4 7:29 Illegal Contact on the Bills (Jordan Poyer), 5 yards 0% WAS +0.8 pts

Washington penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while Washington was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:17 The Bills converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedFalse Start on the Bills (Emmanuel Sanders), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 9 flags in 1778 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +6% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:31 Offensive Pass Interference on Washington (J.D. McKissic), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1115 snaps before, position avg 1 per 773 +7% BUF BUF: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 4:01 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +4% WAS BUF: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 3:15 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +6% WAS BUF: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:58 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (William Jackson III), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1881 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +5% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q2 9:51 Onside kick recovered by WashingtonSpecial teams +7% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q2 5:41 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +4% WAS BUF: Punt
8 Q2 1:14 Illegal Contact on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1888 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +11% WAS WAS: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dane Jackson (BUF CB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 0% · Bills 100%

Final margin
Bills by 22
Luck in points
3.7 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 18.3
Replay with same day's form
Washington 3% · Bills 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Washington · Bills

More from Week 3 2021