luckadjusted

Week 3 2021 · September 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Raiders, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Dolphins 31–28, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.5 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 5:50 left): the Dolphins converted 4th & 20, worth 38 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final (OT)

Miami Dolphins 28
Las Vegas Raiders 31

September 26, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −4

Luck index +8 Raiders about even · −8 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Raiders win 9.

  1. 1 MIA 13 LV 7
  2. 2 MIA 35 LV 37
  3. 3 MIA 24 LV 29
  4. 4 MIA 10 LV 17
  5. 5 MIA 23 LV 33
  6. 6 MIA 13 LV 26
  7. 7 MIA 21 LV 38
  8. 8 MIA 27 LV 48
  9. 9 MIA 21 LV 47
  10. 10 MIA 7 LV 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 8% of them, Raiders 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.5%
Dolphins by 9–162.0%
Dolphins by 1–85.0%
Level after regulation1.4%
Raiders by 1–817.0%
Raiders by 9–1620.2%
Raiders by 17+54.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 7.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 50 yds made · 74% expected
  • J. Sanders, 48 yds missed · 79% expected
  • J. Sanders, 46 yds made · 81% expected
  • D. Carlson, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Sanders, 50 yds made · 75% expected
  • D. Carlson, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:49 Return touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +33% MIA MIA: Opp touchdown
2 Q4 0:08 The Dolphins converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +18% MIA MIA: Touchdown
3 Q4 0:02 The Dolphins’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +19% MIA MIA: Field goal
4 QOT 6:32 D. Carlson made 38-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +36% MIA LV: Field goal
5 QOT 6:20 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +25% LV LV: Field goal
6 QOT 5:50 The Dolphins converted 4th & 203rd & 4th downs · 15% expected +38% MIA MIA: Field goal
7 QOT 4:32 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +23% MIA MIA: Field goal
8 QOT 0:03 D. Carlson made 22-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for himNeutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins, 4 yardsPre-snap flags +22% LV LV: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Josh Jacobs (LV RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nicholas Morrow (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Denzelle Good (LV G/T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Raekwon Davis (MIA DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 20% · Raiders 80%

Final margin
Raiders by 3
Luck in points
4.7 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 7.7
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 8% · Raiders 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Dolphins · Raiders

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