luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2021 · September 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Giants, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Giants 17–14, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 22 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Giants were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:12 left): the Giants fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 19 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 17
New York Giants 14

September 26, 2021 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Giants −3

Luck index +39 Falcons lucky · −39 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 6, Giants win 4.

  1. 1 ATL 23 NYG 0
  2. 2 ATL 23 NYG 7
  3. 3 ATL 19 NYG 7
  4. 4 ATL 26 NYG 17
  5. 5 ATL 19 NYG 14
  6. 6 ATL 19 NYG 17
  7. 7 ATL 17 NYG 19
  8. 8 ATL 24 NYG 31
  9. 9 ATL 10 NYG 23
  10. 10 ATL 6 NYG 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 61% of them, Giants 39%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+13.2%
Falcons by 9–1617.1%
Falcons by 1–828.8%
Level after regulation3.2%
Giants by 1–819.6%
Giants by 9–1612.5%
Giants by 17+5.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 points to the Giants: the final margin was Falcons by 3, without the luck Falcons by 5.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • G. Gano, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • Y. Koo, 40 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 4 for 28 yards, Giants 8 for 53 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Rodarius Williams), 2 yards +3% ATL +1.0 pts
Q1 11:51 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +3% ATL +1.4 pts
Q1 2:48 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Gary Brightwell), 15 yards +4% ATL +1.4 pts
Q2 9:30 False Start on the Giants (Elijhaa Penny), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.4 pts
Q2 5:49 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Hayden Hurst), 10 yards +5% NYG +1.4 pts
Q2 2:58 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (C.J. Board), 3 yards, wiping out the play +3% ATL +1.3 pts
Q2 1:54 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Xavier McKinney), 8 yards +3% ATL +1.1 pts
Q3 9:50 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Falcons (Christian Blake), 5 yards +2% NYG +0.3 pts
Q3 9:38 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play +10% ATL +2.4 pts
Q4 13:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Fabian Moreau), 7 yards +5% NYG +1.1 pts
Q4 5:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Logan Ryan), 5 yards +9% ATL +1.8 pts
Q4 2:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Fabian Moreau), 6 yards +8% NYG +0.9 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:24 The Giants converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% NYG NYG: Field goal
2 Q2 1:10 The Giants fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% ATL NYG: End of half
3 Q2 0:14 The Falcons fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NYG ATL: Punt
4 Q3 9:38 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% ATL ATL: Punt
5 Q4 5:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Logan Ryan), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2581 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +9% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Fabian Moreau), 6 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1187 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +8% NYG NYG: Punt
7 Q4 2:12 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +19% NYG NYG: Punt
8 Q4 0:03 Y. Koo made a 40-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +13% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nick Gates (NYG C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shane Lemieux (NYG OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Russell Gage (ATL WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kendall Sheffield (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 79% · Giants 21%

Final margin
Falcons by 3
Luck in points
2.4 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 5.4
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 61% · Giants 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Falcons · Giants

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