luckadjusted

Week 3 2021 · September 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Giants, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Giants 17–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Giants were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): Y. Koo made 40-yard field goal, worth 25 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 17
New York Giants 14

September 26, 2021 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Giants −3

Luck index +36 Falcons lucky · −36 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 6, Giants win 4.

  1. 1 ATL 27 NYG 3
  2. 2 ATL 34 NYG 17
  3. 3 ATL 22 NYG 10
  4. 4 ATL 26 NYG 17
  5. 5 ATL 21 NYG 16
  6. 6 ATL 26 NYG 24
  7. 7 ATL 10 NYG 13
  8. 8 ATL 10 NYG 16
  9. 9 ATL 9 NYG 20
  10. 10 ATL 3 NYG 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 64% of them, Giants 36%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+15.7%
Falcons by 9–1620.1%
Falcons by 1–827.6%
Level after regulation1.9%
Giants by 1–819.7%
Giants by 9–1610.5%
Giants by 17+4.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 1.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • G. Gano, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • Y. Koo, 40 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:21 The Giants converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +11% NYG NYG: Field goal
2 Q2 1:38 The Falcons converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:14 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +20% NYG ATL: Punt
4 Q3 9:38 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% ATL ATL: Punt
5 Q4 5:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Logan Ryan), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2581 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +9% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Fabian Moreau), 6 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1187 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +8% NYG NYG: Punt
7 Q4 2:12 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +20% NYG NYG: Punt
8 Q4 0:03 Y. Koo made 40-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +25% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nick Gates (NYG C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shane Lemieux (NYG OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Russell Gage (ATL WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kendall Sheffield (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 60% · Giants 40%

Final margin
Falcons by 3
Luck in points
1.1 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 64% · Giants 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Falcons · Giants

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