Week 3 2021 · September 26, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Saints at Patriots, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?
The Saints beat the Patriots 28–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 8 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 7.1 points to the Patriots.
An off day for the Patriots: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Patriots were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:56 left): the Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 18 points of win probability to the Saints.
Final
 New Orleans Saints | 28 |
|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Saints about even · −17 Patriots
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Saints win 8, Patriots win 2.
- 1 NO 41 NE 15
- 2 NO 45 NE 27
- 3 NO 38 NE 24
- 4 NO 31 NE 19
- 5 NO 32 NE 23
- 6 NO 30 NE 23
- 7 NO 32 NE 27
- 8 NO 29 NE 27
- 9 NO 23 NE 26
- 10 NO 10 NE 21
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Patriots
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
33 points apart for the Patriots: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saints offenseEPA per play gained | +0.12 | +0.13 | worse by 0.01 |
| Saints defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.05 | +0.07 | better by 0.12 |
| Patriots offenseEPA per play gained | −0.05 | +0.13 | worse by 0.18 |
| Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.12 | +0.17 | better by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Saints win 83% of them, Patriots 17%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 15.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Saints by 17+ | 35.9% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 21.9% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 25.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| Patriots by 1–8 | 10.0% |
| Patriots by 9–16 | 4.3% |
| Patriots by 17+ | 1.6% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Saints by 15. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 19.7.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- A. Rosas, 52 yds missed · 62% expected
- A. Rosas, 36 yds missed · 89% expected
- N. Folk, 45 yds made · 78% expected
- N. Folk, 26 yds made · 98% expected
When it happened
Patriots’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:52 | The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +4% NO | NE: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:42 | The Saints converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +7% NO | NO: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:40 | The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +7% NO | NO: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 0:13 | A. Rosas missed 52-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 4 of 9 from 45+ before | +7% NE | NO: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 10:30 | The Patriots converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% NE | NE: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 4:16 | A. Rosas missed 36-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +11% NE | NO: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 2:56 | The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +18% NO | NE: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 15:00 | Return touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams | +10% NO | NO: Opp touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Stephon Gilmore (NE CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- N'Keal Harry (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Devin Asiasi (NE TE), out · 0.2 pts
- Anfernee Jennings (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Wil Lutz (NO K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- David Onyemata (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Marcus Davenport (NO DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Erik McCoy (NO C/G), out · 0.3 pts
- Kwon Alexander (NO LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Tre'Quan Smith (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Saints 100% · Patriots 0%
- Final margin
- Saints by 15
- Luck in points
- 4.7 for the Patriots
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Saints by 19.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Saints 83% · Patriots 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · 
Saints · 
Patriots
More from Week 3 2021
- Panthers at Texans CAR 24–9 · replay 75% for the winner
- Cardinals at Jaguars ARI 31–19 · replay 91% for the winner
- Falcons at Giants ATL 17–14 · replay 64% for the winner
- Ravens at Lions BAL 19–17 · replay 52% for the winner
- Bears at Browns CLE 26–6 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers CIN 24–10 · replay 85% for the winner
- Colts at Titans TEN 25–16 · replay 62% for the winner
- Chargers at Chiefs LAC 30–24 · replay 37% for the winner
- Washington at Bills BUF 43–21 · replay 97% for the winner
- Dolphins at Raiders LV 31–28 · replay 92% for the winner
- Jets at Broncos DEN 26–0 · replay 95% for the winner
- Seahawks at Vikings MIN 30–17 · replay 42% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Rams LA 34–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- Packers at 49ers GB 30–28 · replay 88% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys DAL 41–21 · replay 74% for the winner