luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2021 · September 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets at Broncos, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Jets 26–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:45 left): the Broncos converted 3rd & 9, worth 10 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

New York Jets 0
Denver Broncos 26

September 26, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −10.5

Luck index +5 Broncos about even · −5 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 0, Broncos win 10.

  1. 1 NYJ 17 DEN 20
  2. 2 NYJ 10 DEN 16
  3. 3 NYJ 6 DEN 15
  4. 4 NYJ 10 DEN 21
  5. 5 NYJ 9 DEN 23
  6. 6 NYJ 17 DEN 34
  7. 7 NYJ 6 DEN 26
  8. 8 NYJ 10 DEN 33
  9. 9 NYJ 10 DEN 38
  10. 10 NYJ 6 DEN 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 5% of them, Broncos 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.2%
Jets by 9–160.6%
Jets by 1–84.0%
Level after regulation0.7%
Broncos by 1–810.2%
Broncos by 9–1622.2%
Broncos by 17+62.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.0 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 26, without the luck Broncos by 19.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 45 yds made · 83% expected
  • B. McManus, 47 yds made · 80% expected
  • B. McManus, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • B. McManus, 36 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 9 for 90 yards, Broncos 6 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:15 Defensive Offside on the Jets (Shaq Lawson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.2 pts
Q1 4:41 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jets (John Franklin-Myers), 1 yard +1% DEN +0.5 pts
Q2 7:54 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.2 pts
Q2 6:34 False Start on the Broncos (Courtland Sutton), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q2 1:19 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +1% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q2 1:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets, 19 yards +4% DEN +3.0 pts
Q2 1:01 Taunting on the Broncos, 15 yards +1% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q2 0:56 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jets (Ryan Griffin), 10 yards +1% DEN +0.8 pts
Q3 14:07 Taunting on the Jets, 15 yards +1% DEN +1.4 pts
Q3 14:00 Face Mask on the Jets (Marcus Maye), 15 yards +1% DEN +1.8 pts
Q3 5:58 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos (Noah Fant), 10 yards 0% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q3 1:42 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% DEN +1.4 pts
Q4 12:09 Illegal Formation on the Broncos (Noah Fant), 4 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% NYJ +1.0 pts
Q4 11:36 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Shaq Lawson), 15 yards 0% DEN +1.4 pts
Q4 1:51 False Start on the Broncos (Teddy Bridgewater), 6 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.7 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:01 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +5% NYJ DEN: Punt
2 Q1 10:51 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +3% DEN NYJ: Punt
3 Q1 6:45 The Broncos converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% DEN DEN: Touchdown
4 Q2 15:00 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +3% NYJ DEN: Field goal
5 Q2 13:30 The Jets converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +3% NYJ NYJ: Punt
6 Q2 10:08 The Jets converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% NYJ NYJ: Punt
7 Q2 2:49 The Broncos converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +4% DEN DEN: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets, 19 yardsJudgment calls +4% DEN DEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jerry Jeudy (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Bradley Chubb (DEN OLB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Michael Ojemudia (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josey Jewell (DEN ILB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josey Jewell (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mekhi Becton (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jamison Crowder (NYJ WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Denzel Mims (NYJ WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Braden Mann (NYJ P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ashtyn Davis (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Broncos 100%

Final margin
Broncos by 26
Luck in points
6.0 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 20.0
Replay with same day's form
Jets 5% · Broncos 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Jets · Broncos

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