Week 3 2021 · September 26, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Bears at Browns, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?
The Browns beat the Bears 26–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 10 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Bears.
Before kickoff the Browns were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 4:23 left): the Browns were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 14 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final
 Chicago Bears | 6 |
|---|---|
 Cleveland Browns | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Browns about even · −4 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bears win 0, Browns win 10.
- 1 CHI 17 CLE 20
- 2 CHI 10 CLE 16
- 3 CHI 19 CLE 27
- 4 CHI 13 CLE 24
- 5 CHI 16 CLE 29
- 6 CHI 7 CLE 23
- 7 CHI 14 CLE 32
- 8 CHI 12 CLE 34
- 9 CHI 13 CLE 37
- 10 CHI 7 CLE 38
Your call
Did the Browns earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bears win 4% of them, Browns 96%. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 20.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bears by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 1.1% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 3.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 10.4% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 20.4% |
| Browns by 17+ | 64.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Santos, 47 yds made · 67% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 57 yds made · 51% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 41 yds made · 81% expected
- C. Santos, 22 yds made · 97% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 52 yds made · 58% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 28 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: Bears 5 for 44 yards, Browns 7 for 98 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:23 | Defensive Holding on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 5 yards | +2% CLE +0.9 pts |
| Q1 7:59 | Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Khyiris Tonga), 15 yards | +5% CLE +1.5 pts |
| Q1 7:23 | False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CHI +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:02 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% CHI +2.4 pts |
| Q2 10:25 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Browns (Elijah Lee), 10 yards | +3% CHI +0.7 pts |
| Q2 3:48 | False Start on the Bears, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% CLE +0.8 pts |
| Q2 3:06 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Browns (M.J. Stewart), 10 yards | +4% CHI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:19 | Illegal Double-Team Block on the Bears (Jesse James), 10 yards | +3% CLE +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:21 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards | +3% CHI +1.5 pts |
| Q3 4:27 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% CLE +1.7 pts |
| Q3 4:02 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (John Johnson), 48 yards, wiping out the play | +13% CHI +8.6 pts |
| Q4 14:35 | Defensive Holding on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 5 yards | +1% CHI +0.9 pts |
Bears penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Browns’ chance of winning
As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:51 | The Browns converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +7% CLE | CLE: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 11:31 | The Browns were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +6% CHI | CLE: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 4:23 | The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +14% CHI | CLE: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 13:02 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% CHI | CHI: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 12:36 | C. McLaughlin made a 57-yard field goalKicks · 51% expected for him, 7 of 11 from 45+ before | +11% CLE | CLE: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 9:31 | The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +7% CLE | CLE: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 5:46 | The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% CHI | CHI: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 4:02 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (John Johnson), 48 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1794 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 | +13% CHI | CHI: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jarvis Landry (CLE WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Andy Dalton (CHI QB), out, replaced by j.fields · 2.2 pts
- Tashaun Gipson (CHI DB), out · 0.5 pts
- Tashaun Gipson (CHI FS), out · 0.4 pts
- Danny Trevathan (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bears 0% · Browns 100%
- Final margin
- Browns by 20
- Luck in points
- 0.9 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Browns by 20.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Bears 4% · Browns 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · 
Bears · 
Browns
More from Week 3 2021
- Panthers at Texans CAR 24–9 · replay 76% for the winner
- Cardinals at Jaguars ARI 31–19 · replay 92% for the winner
- Falcons at Giants ATL 17–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Ravens at Lions BAL 19–17 · replay 49% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers CIN 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Colts at Titans TEN 25–16 · replay 63% for the winner
- Chargers at Chiefs LAC 30–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Saints at Patriots NO 28–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Washington at Bills BUF 43–21 · replay 97% for the winner
- Dolphins at Raiders LV 31–28 · replay 93% for the winner
- Jets at Broncos DEN 26–0 · replay 95% for the winner
- Seahawks at Vikings MIN 30–17 · replay 40% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Rams LA 34–24 · replay 34% for the winner
- Packers at 49ers GB 30–28 · replay 90% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys DAL 41–21 · replay 76% for the winner