luckadjusted

Week 3 2021 · September 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bears at Browns, Week 3 2021: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Bears 26–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 10 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 13.0 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Browns were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:02 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (John Johnson), 48 yards, wiping out the play, worth 23 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 6
Cleveland Browns 26

September 26, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −7.5

Luck index +4 Browns about even · −4 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 0, Browns win 10.

  1. 1 CHI 27 CLE 29
  2. 2 CHI 10 CLE 17
  3. 3 CHI 13 CLE 23
  4. 4 CHI 10 CLE 23
  5. 5 CHI 17 CLE 33
  6. 6 CHI 6 CLE 24
  7. 7 CHI 17 CLE 37
  8. 8 CHI 20 CLE 43
  9. 9 CHI 17 CLE 44
  10. 10 CHI 3 CLE 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 4% of them, Browns 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+0.1%
Bears by 9–160.6%
Bears by 1–83.2%
Level after regulation0.7%
Browns by 1–89.6%
Browns by 9–1619.8%
Browns by 17+66.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 27.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 47 yds made · 67% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 57 yds made · 49% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 41 yds made · 80% expected
  • C. Santos, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 52 yds made · 58% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 28 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:31 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% CHI CLE: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 4:23 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +14% CHI CLE: Field goal
3 Q2 13:02 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% CHI CHI: Punt
4 Q2 12:36 C. McLaughlin made 57-yard field goalKicks · 49% expected for him, 7 of 11 from 45+ before +12% CLE CLE: Punt
5 Q2 9:31 The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% CLE CLE: Punt
6 Q2 6:32 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +10% CHI CLE: Punt
7 Q2 5:46 The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CHI CHI: Punt
8 Q3 4:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (John Johnson), 48 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1794 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +23% CHI CHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jarvis Landry (CLE WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Andy Dalton (CHI QB), out, replaced by j.fields · 2.2 pts
  • Tashaun Gipson (CHI DB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tashaun Gipson (CHI FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Danny Trevathan (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 0% · Browns 100%

Final margin
Browns by 20
Luck in points
7.5 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 27.5
Replay with same day's form
Bears 4% · Browns 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2021 games · Bears · Browns

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