2021 season · final
New Orleans Saints, 2021: game by game
The Saints went 9–8 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.1 wins. Luck added 0.9: the 6th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–3.
Every game
How often the Saints win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Packers | W 38–3 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 2 | @ Panthers | L 7–26 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 3 | @ Patriots | W 28–13 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 4 | vs Giants | L 21–27 | 83% | −83 |
| Week 5 | @ Washington | W 33–22 | 35% | +65 |
| Week 7 | @ Seahawks | W 13–10 | 48% | +52 |
| Week 8 | vs Buccaneers | W 36–27 | 22% | +78 |
| Week 9 | vs Falcons | L 25–27 | 38% | −38 |
| Week 10 | @ Titans | L 21–23 | 64% | −64 |
| Week 11 | @ Eagles | L 29–40 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 12 | vs Bills | L 6–31 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 13 | vs Cowboys | L 17–27 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 14 | @ Jets | W 30–9 | 61% | +39 |
| Week 15 | @ Buccaneers | W 9–0 | 16% | +84 |
| Week 16 | vs Dolphins | L 3–20 | 33% | −33 |
| Week 17 | vs Panthers | W 18–10 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 18 | @ Falcons | W 30–20 | 77% | +23 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Saints’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Rest | +0.04 | +1.6 |
| Judgment calls | −0.08 | −1.8 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.23 | −3.9 |
| Kicks | −0.24 | −6.8 |
| Injuries | −0.93 | −36.7 |