luckadjusted

Week 13 2021 · December 2, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Saints, Week 13 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Saints 27–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 4.3 points to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:00 left): the Cowboys converted 3rd & 7, worth 14 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 27
New Orleans Saints 17

December 2, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Cowboys −6

Luck index +25 Cowboys lucky · −25 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 7, Saints win 3.

  1. 1 DAL 36 NO 7
  2. 2 DAL 51 NO 29
  3. 3 DAL 40 NO 23
  4. 4 DAL 43 NO 31
  5. 5 DAL 30 NO 21
  6. 6 DAL 30 NO 24
  7. 7 DAL 34 NO 31
  8. 8 DAL 34 NO 37
  9. 9 DAL 21 NO 30
  10. 10 DAL 6 NO 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 75% of them, Saints 25%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+32.0%
Cowboys by 9–1619.4%
Cowboys by 1–823.0%
Level after regulation2.1%
Saints by 1–812.3%
Saints by 9–167.3%
Saints by 17+3.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 1.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 56 yds missed · 61% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 55 yds made · 65% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • B. Maher, 42 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:50 The Saints converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% NO NO: Missed field goal
2 Q1 7:56 B. Maher missed 56-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 5 of 11 from 45+ before +7% DAL NO: Punt
3 Q1 5:16 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +10% NO DAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:00 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +14% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:50 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 Q3 6:50 Illegal Blindside Block on the Saints (Garrett Griffin), 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 447 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 15:00 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +13% DAL NO: Punt
8 Q4 8:17 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% NO DAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jameis Winston (NO QB), out (IR), replaced by t.hill · 3.9 pts
  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Terron Armstead (NO T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Adam Trautman (NO TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (NO DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Terence Steele (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Randy Gregory (DAL DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 93% · Saints 7%

Final margin
Cowboys by 10
Luck in points
9.0 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 75% · Saints 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2021 games · Cowboys · Saints

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