luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2021 · December 2, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Saints, Week 13 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Saints 27–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:16 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 10 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 27
New Orleans Saints 17

December 2, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Cowboys −6

Luck index +26 Cowboys lucky · −26 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 7, Saints win 3.

  1. 1 DAL 58 NO 27
  2. 2 DAL 44 NO 23
  3. 3 DAL 34 NO 17
  4. 4 DAL 30 NO 16
  5. 5 DAL 20 NO 10
  6. 6 DAL 23 NO 17
  7. 7 DAL 27 NO 24
  8. 8 DAL 29 NO 32
  9. 9 DAL 24 NO 33
  10. 10 DAL 13 NO 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 74% of them, Saints 26%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+31.2%
Cowboys by 9–1619.1%
Cowboys by 1–822.4%
Level after regulation1.9%
Saints by 1–812.4%
Saints by 9–168.2%
Saints by 17+4.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.6 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 10, without the luck Cowboys by 3.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 56 yds missed · 63% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 55 yds made · 66% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • B. Maher, 42 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 5 for 35 yards, Saints 7 for 59 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:52 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Cowboys, 5 yards +1% NO +0.4 pts
Q1 2:21 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cowboys, 5 yards +3% NO +0.7 pts
Q1 0:59 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.8 pts
Q2 10:37 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Dalton Schultz), 10 yards +3% NO +0.8 pts
Q2 5:23 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Nick Vannett), 10 yards +3% DAL +0.9 pts
Q2 1:27 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Bradley Roby), 5 yards 0% DAL +0.2 pts
Q2 0:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 13 yards +5% DAL +1.3 pts
Q2 0:16 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards 0% DAL +2.0 pts
Q3 6:50 Illegal Blindside Block on the Saints (Garrett Griffin), 11 yards, wiping out the play +8% DAL +2.4 pts
Q4 7:19 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +0.8 pts
Q4 5:27 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +3% DAL +0.9 pts
Q4 2:52 Offside on Free Kick on the Cowboys (Kelvin Joseph), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.5 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:50 The Saints converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% NO NO: Missed field goal
2 Q1 7:56 B. Maher missed a 56-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 5 of 11 from 45+ before +7% DAL NO: Punt
3 Q1 5:16 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +10% NO DAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:00 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 9:10 G. Zuerlein made a 55-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 26 of 39 from 45+ before +7% DAL DAL: Punt
6 Q2 1:50 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +8% DAL DAL: Field goal
7 Q3 6:50 Illegal Blindside Block on the Saints (Garrett Griffin), 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 447 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 15:00 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +6% DAL NO: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jameis Winston (NO QB), out (IR), replaced by t.hill · 3.9 pts
  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Terron Armstead (NO T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Adam Trautman (NO TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (NO DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Terence Steele (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Randy Gregory (DAL DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 98% · Saints 2%

Final margin
Cowboys by 10
Luck in points
6.6 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 3.4
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 74% · Saints 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2021 games · Cowboys · Saints

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