luckadjusted

Week 13 2021 · December 5, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Jets, Week 13 2021: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Jets 33–18 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 14:19 left): the Eagles converted 3rd & 4, worth 10 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 33
New York Jets 18

December 5, 2021 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −5

Luck index +33 Eagles lucky · −33 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 7, Jets win 3.

  1. 1 PHI 31 NYJ 7
  2. 2 PHI 33 NYJ 17
  3. 3 PHI 26 NYJ 13
  4. 4 PHI 23 NYJ 13
  5. 5 PHI 16 NYJ 9
  6. 6 PHI 34 NYJ 30
  7. 7 PHI 24 NYJ 22
  8. 8 PHI 14 NYJ 17
  9. 9 PHI 13 NYJ 20
  10. 10 PHI 7 NYJ 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 67% of them, Jets 33%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+15.4%
Eagles by 9–1621.6%
Eagles by 1–828.2%
Level after regulation2.6%
Jets by 1–819.9%
Jets by 9–168.9%
Jets by 17+3.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 15. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 0.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Elliott, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Elliott, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Elliott, 46 yds made · 78% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:39 The Jets converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:19 The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q2 11:33 The Jets converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +7% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
4 Q2 9:26 The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +7% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
5 Q2 3:06 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +10% PHI NYJ: Punt
6 Q2 1:07 The Eagles converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +8% PHI PHI: Field goal
7 Q3 10:17 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% PHI PHI: Field goal
8 Q3 8:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Bryce Hall), 21 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1352 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +8% PHI PHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike White (NYJ QB), out (IR), replaced by z.wilson · 0.9 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NYJ FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bryce Huff (NYJ DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Keelan Cole (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandin Echols (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jarrod Wilson (NYJ SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (NYJ DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Tyler Kroft (NYJ TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Michael Carter (NYJ RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jack Driscoll (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Davion Taylor (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 68% · Jets 32%

Final margin
Eagles by 15
Luck in points
15.1 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 67% · Jets 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2021 games · Eagles · Jets

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