luckadjusted

Week 13 2021 · December 5, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Steelers, Week 13 2021: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Ravens 20–19 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Ravens had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.1 points to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:55 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Anthony Averett), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 47 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 19
Pittsburgh Steelers 20

December 5, 2021 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Ravens −4

Luck index +30 Steelers lucky · −30 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 3, Steelers win 7.

  1. 1 BAL 24 PIT 10
  2. 2 BAL 17 PIT 10
  3. 3 BAL 20 PIT 17
  4. 4 BAL 21 PIT 24
  5. 5 BAL 17 PIT 21
  6. 6 BAL 17 PIT 23
  7. 7 BAL 20 PIT 30
  8. 8 BAL 14 PIT 27
  9. 9 BAL 3 PIT 20
  10. 10 BAL 3 PIT 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 30% of them, Steelers 70%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+3.5%
Ravens by 9–167.3%
Ravens by 1–815.3%
Level after regulation4.3%
Steelers by 1–826.1%
Steelers by 9–1622.4%
Steelers by 17+21.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 6.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 53 yds made · 71% expected
  • J. Tucker, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Tucker, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Boswell, 43 yds made · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:56 The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +10% BAL BAL: Turnover
2 Q1 8:36 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +17% PIT BAL: Punt
3 Q2 9:18 The Ravens converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +10% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q4 13:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 41 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 2983 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +11% BAL BAL: Field goal
5 Q4 2:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Anthony Averett), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1431 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +47% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:52 The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +12% PIT PIT: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:16 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +25% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:12 The Ravens’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +28% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Haden (PIT CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kevin Dotson (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chris Westry (BAL CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 27% · Steelers 73%

Final margin
Steelers by 1
Luck in points
5.4 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 30% · Steelers 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2021 games · Ravens · Steelers

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