One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Saints in one-score games

The Saints are 3–3 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 3–5 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 2.7 of those 6. Since 2019: 30–33 in 63 one-score games, 33.5 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Saints win in replays (regular season).

2026 +0.3 3–3

2025 −1.2 3–5

2024 −1.7 2–6

2023 −0.9 3–6

2022 −1.6 5–6

2021 −1.1 2–3

2020 +0.5 5–3

2019 +2.2 7–1

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	3–3	2.7 of 6	+0.3	3–5
2025	3–5	4.2 of 8	−1.2	6–11
2024	2–6	3.7 of 8	−1.7	5–12
2023	3–6	3.9 of 9	−0.9	9–8
2022	5–6	6.6 of 11	−1.6	7–10
2021	2–3	3.1 of 5	−1.1	9–8
2020	5–3	4.5 of 8	+0.5	12–4
2019	7–1	4.8 of 8	+2.2	13–3

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Lions	L 30–31	57%	−57
Week 2	@ Ravens	W 24–17	27%	+73
Week 3	vs Raiders	L 27–35	53%	−53
Week 6	@ Giants	W 34–27	48%	+52
Week 7	vs Steelers	L 10–16	39%	−39
Week 9	vs Browns	W 23–22	49%	+51

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · New Orleans Saints, every season