One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Saints in one-score games

The Saints are 1–1 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 3–5 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.7 of those 2. Since 2019: 28–31 in 59 one-score games, 31.3 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Saints win in replays (regular season).

2026 +0.3 1–1

2025 −1.0 3–5

2024 −1.6 2–6

2023 −1.0 3–6

2022 −1.2 5–6

2021 −1.2 2–3

2020 +0.5 5–3

2019 +2.0 7–1

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	1–1	0.7 of 2	+0.3	1–1
2025	3–5	4.0 of 8	−1.0	6–11
2024	2–6	3.6 of 8	−1.6	5–12
2023	3–6	4.0 of 9	−1.0	9–8
2022	5–6	6.2 of 11	−1.2	7–10
2021	2–3	3.2 of 5	−1.2	9–8
2020	5–3	4.5 of 8	+0.5	12–4
2019	7–1	5.0 of 8	+2.0	13–3

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Lions	L 30–31	59%	−59
Week 2	@ Ravens	W 24–17	13%	+87

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · New Orleans Saints, every season