Week 15 2021 · December 19, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Saints at Buccaneers, Week 15 2021: who deserved to win?
The Saints stole one. They beat the Buccaneers 9–0, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 5.0 points to the Saints.
Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 80% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:13 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 19 points of win probability to the Saints.
Final
 New Orleans Saints | 9 |
|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +83 Saints very lucky · −83 Buccaneers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Saints win 2, Buccaneers win 8.
- 1 NO 23 TB 10
- 2 NO 20 TB 16
- 3 NO 27 TB 29
- 4 NO 18 TB 23
- 5 NO 6 TB 13
- 6 NO 20 TB 31
- 7 NO 19 TB 33
- 8 NO 17 TB 35
- 9 NO 3 TB 26
- 10 NO 7 TB 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Saints win 17% of them, Buccaneers 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 9.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Saints by 17+ | 1.6% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 3.8% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 10.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 19.8% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 23.1% |
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 39.9% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Saints by 9. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 9.3.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. Maher, 39 yds made · 88% expected
- B. Maher, 35 yds made · 92% expected
- R. Succop, 45 yds missed · 81% expected
- B. Maher, 42 yds made · 85% expected
When it happened
Buccaneers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:50 | The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +13% NO | NO: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 7:08 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +6% NO | TB: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q2 6:25 | R. Succop missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him, 7 of 11 from 45+ before | +9% NO | TB: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 0:55 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +7% NO | TB: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 5:59 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +11% NO | TB: Turnover |
| 6 | Q3 2:40 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +10% TB | TB: Turnover |
| 7 | Q3 1:13 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Buccaneers fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +19% NO | TB: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 12:55 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +7% NO | TB: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.7 pts
- Mike Edwards (TB FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Jameis Winston (NO QB), out (IR), replaced by t.hill · 4.7 pts
- Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out · 1.6 pts
- Terron Armstead (NO T), out · 1.0 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Saints 69% · Buccaneers 31%
- Final margin
- Saints by 9
- Luck in points
- 0.3 for the Buccaneers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Saints by 9.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Saints 17% · Buccaneers 83% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2021 games · 
Saints · 
Buccaneers
More from Week 15 2021
- Chiefs at Chargers KC 34–28 · replay 73% for the winner
- Patriots at Colts IND 27–17 · replay 75% for the winner
- Cardinals at Lions DET 30–12 · replay 20% for the winner
- Panthers at Bills BUF 31–14 · replay 83% for the winner
- Cowboys at Giants DAL 21–6 · replay 73% for the winner
- Texans at Jaguars HOU 30–16 · replay 31% for the winner
- Jets at Dolphins MIA 31–24 · replay 72% for the winner
- Titans at Steelers PIT 19–13 · replay 67% for the winner
- Falcons at 49ers SF 31–13 · replay 89% for the winner
- Bengals at Broncos CIN 15–10 · replay 67% for the winner
- Packers at Ravens GB 31–30 · replay 77% for the winner
- Raiders at Browns LV 16–14 · replay 52% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 17–9 · replay 44% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams LA 20–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Washington at Eagles PHI 27–17 · replay 92% for the winner