luckadjusted

Week 15 2021 · December 18, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Patriots at Colts, Week 15 2021: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Patriots 27–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 2.3 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:25 left): the Patriots converted 3rd & 7, worth 12 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 17
Indianapolis Colts 27

December 18, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −1

Luck index +25 Colts lucky · −25 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 2, Colts win 8.

  1. 1 NE 36 IND 24
  2. 2 NE 17 IND 13
  3. 3 NE 16 IND 19
  4. 4 NE 7 IND 12
  5. 5 NE 24 IND 31
  6. 6 NE 17 IND 27
  7. 7 NE 7 IND 20
  8. 8 NE 14 IND 30
  9. 9 NE 20 IND 38
  10. 10 NE 14 IND 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 25% of them, Colts 75%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+3.3%
Patriots by 9–166.7%
Patriots by 1–814.9%
Level after regulation3.1%
Colts by 1–823.6%
Colts by 9–1622.8%
Colts by 17+25.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 11.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Badgley, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • M. Badgley, 49 yds missed · 68% expected
  • N. Folk, 25 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:09 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +4% NE IND: Punt
2 Q1 12:43 The Patriots converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +4% NE NE: Punt
3 Q1 11:11 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Patriots, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% IND IND: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:21 Blocked punt by the ColtsSpecial teams +11% IND IND: Opp touchdown
5 Q3 13:49 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +4% IND NE: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 13:14 The Patriots converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +3% NE NE: Field goal
7 Q4 9:08 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFalse Start on the Patriots, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% IND NE: Field goal
8 Q4 2:25 The Patriots converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +12% NE NE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Kelly (IND C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 1% · Colts 99%

Final margin
Colts by 10
Luck in points
1.8 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 11.8
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 25% · Colts 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2021 games · Patriots · Colts

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