2021 season · final
Buffalo Bills, 2021: game by game
The Bills went 11–6 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.1 wins. Luck cost them 1.1: the 8th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–5.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.3.
Every game
How often the Bills win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Steelers | L 16–23 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 2 | @ Dolphins | W 35–0 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 3 | vs Washington | W 43–21 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 4 | vs Texans | W 40–0 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 5 | @ Chiefs | W 38–20 | 40% | +60 |
| Week 6 | @ Titans | L 31–34 | 44% | −44 |
| Week 8 | vs Dolphins | W 26–11 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 9 | @ Jaguars | L 6–9 | 57% | −57 |
| Week 10 | @ Jets | W 45–17 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 11 | vs Colts | L 15–41 | 42% | −42 |
| Week 12 | @ Saints | W 31–6 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 13 | vs Patriots | L 10–14 | 48% | −48 |
| Week 14 | @ Buccaneers | L 27–33 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 15 | vs Panthers | W 31–14 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 16 | @ Patriots | W 33–21 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 17 | vs Falcons | W 29–15 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 18 | vs Jets | W 27–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Wild Card | vs Patriots | W 47–17 | 96% | +4 |
| Divisional round | @ Chiefs | L 36–42 | 30% | −30 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bills’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.13 | +8.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.04 | +16.5 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.02 | +10.8 |
| Kicks | −0.24 | −5.8 |
| Judgment calls | −0.29 | −15.6 |