luckadjusted

2021 season · final

Buffalo Bills, 2021: game by game

The Bills went 11–6 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.2 wins. Luck cost them 1.2: the 8th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–5.

Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.2.

Every game

How often the Bills win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Steelers L 16–23 44% −44
Week 2 @ Dolphins W 35–0 95% +5
Week 3 vs Washington W 43–21 97% +3
Week 4 vs Texans W 40–0 98% +2
Week 5 @ Chiefs W 38–20 43% +57
Week 6 @ Titans L 31–34 43% −43
Week 8 vs Dolphins W 26–11 92% +8
Week 9 @ Jaguars L 6–9 59% −59
Week 10 @ Jets W 45–17 96% +4
Week 11 vs Colts L 15–41 41% −41
Week 12 @ Saints W 31–6 98% +2
Week 13 vs Patriots L 10–14 47% −47
Week 14 @ Buccaneers L 27–33 27% −27
Week 15 vs Panthers W 31–14 83% +17
Week 16 @ Patriots W 33–21 78% +22
Week 17 vs Falcons W 29–15 75% +25
Week 18 vs Jets W 27–10 100% 0
Wild Card vs Patriots W 47–17 94% +6
Divisional round @ Chiefs L 36–42 28% −28

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Bills’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
3rd & 4th downs+18.0+1.06
Injuries+10.8+0.63
Fumble bounces+7.9+0.46
Rest−0.2−0.01
Kicks−5.7−0.33
Judgment calls−37.7−2.22