Week 1 2021 · September 12, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Steelers at Bills, Week 1 2021: who deserved to win?
The Steelers beat the Bills 23–16, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Steelers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 21 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Before kickoff the Bills were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:16 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills, 26 yards, worth 19 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 23 |
|---|---|
 Buffalo Bills | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +41 Steelers lucky · −41 Bills
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 6, Bills win 4.
- 1 PIT 33 BUF 9
- 2 PIT 24 BUF 9
- 3 PIT 24 BUF 13
- 4 PIT 17 BUF 9
- 5 PIT 23 BUF 19
- 6 PIT 23 BUF 21
- 7 PIT 14 BUF 16
- 8 PIT 16 BUF 23
- 9 PIT 24 BUF 36
- 10 PIT 17 BUF 37
Your call
Did the Steelers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 59% of them, Bills 41%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 12.7% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 16.8% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 28.5% |
| Level after regulation | 3.7% |
| Bills by 1–8 | 19.4% |
| Bills by 9–16 | 12.2% |
| Bills by 17+ | 6.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- T. Bass, 37 yds made · 88% expected
- C. Boswell, 24 yds made · 98% expected
- C. Boswell, 20 yds made · 99% expected
- T. Bass, 25 yds made · 97% expected
- C. Boswell, 45 yds made · 78% expected
- T. Bass, 42 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: Steelers 5 for 32 yards, Bills 8 for 81 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:28 | Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% PIT +2.1 pts |
| Q1 6:33 | Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% PIT +1.8 pts |
| Q1 4:26 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers (Chase Claypool), 12 yards | +2% BUF +1.1 pts |
| Q2 10:08 | False Start on the Steelers, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% BUF +0.7 pts |
| Q2 4:48 | Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards | +3% PIT +0.8 pts |
| Q2 2:36 | Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BUF +0.2 pts |
| Q3 13:56 | Defensive Holding on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +11% PIT +3.4 pts |
| Q4 12:16 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills, 26 yards | +19% PIT +3.1 pts |
| Q4 5:23 | Defensive Holding on the Bills, 5 yards | 0% PIT +0.4 pts |
| Q4 4:00 | False Start on the Steelers (JuJu Smith-Schuster), 6 yards · pre-snap | +1% BUF +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:47 | False Start on the Bills (Emmanuel Sanders), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PIT +0.1 pts |
| Q4 0:59 | Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Melvin Ingram), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PIT +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:54 | Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards | 0% PIT +2.0 pts |
Steelers penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Bills’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:47 | The Bills converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +6% BUF | BUF: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 12:35 | The Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% BUF | BUF: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 13:56 | Defensive Holding on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 2251 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +11% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 0:24 | The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +8% BUF | BUF: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 13:46 | The Bills were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +11% PIT | BUF: Opp touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 12:16 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills, 26 yardsJudgment calls | +19% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 10:31 | The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +6% PIT | BUF: Opp touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 9:51 | Blocked punt by the SteelersSpecial teams | +16% PIT | PIT: Opp touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Stephon Tuitt (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Robert Spillane (PIT LB), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 45% · Bills 55%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 7
- Luck in points
- 6.5 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Steelers by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 59% · Bills 41% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2021 games · 
Steelers · 
Bills
More from Week 1 2021
- Cowboys at Buccaneers TB 31–29 · replay 75% for the winner
- Cardinals at Titans ARI 38–13 · replay 76% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 37–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Chargers at Washington LAC 20–16 · replay 89% for the winner
- Vikings at Bengals CIN 27–24 · replay 81% for the winner
- Jets at Panthers CAR 19–14 · replay 94% for the winner
- Eagles at Falcons PHI 32–6 · replay 70% for the winner
- Seahawks at Colts SEA 28–16 · replay 63% for the winner
- 49ers at Lions SF 41–33 · replay 58% for the winner
- Browns at Chiefs KC 33–29 · replay 71% for the winner
- Broncos at Giants DEN 27–13 · replay 72% for the winner
- Packers vs Saints NO 38–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots MIA 17–16 · replay 78% for the winner
- Bears at Rams LA 34–14 · replay 89% for the winner
- Ravens at Raiders LV 33–27 · replay 69% for the winner