One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Bills in one-score games

The Bills are 4–1 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 5–3 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 2.9 of those 5. Since 2019: 35–27 in 62 one-score games, 39.6 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Bills win in replays (regular season).

2026 +1.1 4–1

2025 −0.4 5–3

2024 −0.5 5–3

2023 −2.5 6–6

2022 −0.7 6–3

2021 −2.2 0–5

2020 +1.4 5–1

2019 −0.9 4–5

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	4–1	2.9 of 5	+1.1	6–1
2025	5–3	5.4 of 8	−0.4	12–5
2024	5–3	5.5 of 8	−0.5	13–4
2023	6–6	8.5 of 12	−2.5	11–6
2022	6–3	6.7 of 9	−0.7	13–3
2021	0–5	2.2 of 5	−2.2	11–6
2020	5–1	3.6 of 6	+1.4	13–3
2019	4–5	4.9 of 9	−0.9	10–6

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Texans	W 36–31	87%	+13
Week 3	vs Chargers	W 24–16	70%	+30
Week 4	vs Patriots	L 26–29	23%	−23
Week 5	@ Rams	W 37–34	28%	+72
Week 6	@ Raiders	W 33–30	83%	+17

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Buffalo Bills, every season