One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Bills in one-score games

The Bills are 1–0 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 5–3 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.9 of those 1. Since 2019: 32–26 in 58 one-score games, 37.8 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Bills win in replays (regular season).

2026 +0.1 1–0

2025 −0.7 5–3

2024 −0.4 5–3

2023 −2.8 6–6

2022 −0.3 6–3

2021 −2.2 0–5

2020 +1.4 5–1

2019 −0.8 4–5

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	1–0	0.9 of 1	+0.1	2–0
2025	5–3	5.7 of 8	−0.7	12–5
2024	5–3	5.4 of 8	−0.4	13–4
2023	6–6	8.8 of 12	−2.8	11–6
2022	6–3	6.3 of 9	−0.3	13–3
2021	0–5	2.2 of 5	−2.2	11–6
2020	5–1	3.6 of 6	+1.4	13–3
2019	4–5	4.8 of 9	−0.8	10–6

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Texans	W 36–31	93%	+7

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Buffalo Bills, every season