2025 season · final

Buffalo Bills, 2025: game by game

The Bills went 12–5 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.7 wins. Luck cost them 0.7: the 14th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–3.

Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.1.

Every game

How often the Bills win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Ravens	W 41–40	49%	+51
Week 2	@ Jets	W 30–10	98%	+2
Week 3	vs Dolphins	W 31–21	89%	+11
Week 4	vs Saints	W 31–19	91%	+9
Week 5	vs Patriots	L 20–23	46%	−46
Week 6	@ Falcons	L 14–24	59%	−59
Week 8	@ Panthers	W 40–9	99%	+1
Week 9	vs Chiefs	W 28–21	86%	+14
Week 10	@ Dolphins	L 13–30	42%	−42
Week 11	vs Buccaneers	W 44–32	63%	+37
Week 12	@ Texans	L 19–23	46%	−46
Week 13	@ Steelers	W 26–7	92%	+8
Week 14	vs Bengals	W 39–34	59%	+41
Week 15	@ Patriots	W 35–31	68%	+32
Week 16	@ Browns	W 23–20	97%	+3
Week 17	vs Eagles	L 12–13	88%	−88
Week 18	vs Jets	W 35–8	100%	0
Wild Card	@ Jaguars	W 27–24	60%	+40
Divisional round	@ Broncos	L 30–33	53%	−53

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +51 vs BAL

Wk 2 +2 @ NYJ

Wk 3 +11 vs MIA

Wk 4 +9 vs NO

Wk 5 −46 vs NE

Wk 6 −59 @ ATL

Wk 8 +1 @ CAR

Wk 9 +14 vs KC

Wk 10 −42 @ MIA

Wk 11 +37 vs TB

Wk 12 −46 @ HOU

Wk 13 +8 @ PIT

Wk 14 +41 vs CIN

Wk 15 +32 @ NE

Wk 16 +3 @ CLE

Wk 17 −88 vs PHI

Wk 18 0 vs NYJ

Wild Card +40 @ JAX

Divisional −53 @ DEN

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bills’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Rest	−0.05	−1.4
Judgment calls	−0.10	−3.5
Injuries	−0.12	−4.9
Fumble bounces	−0.15	−10.4
Drops	−0.21	−5.6
Kicks	−0.35	−4.9