luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2025 · December 21, 2025

Bills at Browns, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Browns 23–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: drops alone were worth 32 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Bills were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:53 left): D. Knox dropped a catchable pass, worth 22 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Buffalo Bills 23
Cleveland Browns 20

December 21, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Bills −10.5

Luck index +3 Bills about even · −3 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 10, Browns win 0.

  1. 1 BUF 37 CLE 3
  2. 2 BUF 37 CLE 10
  3. 3 BUF 44 CLE 21
  4. 4 BUF 34 CLE 13
  5. 5 BUF 31 CLE 13
  6. 6 BUF 30 CLE 13
  7. 7 BUF 34 CLE 21
  8. 8 BUF 20 CLE 10
  9. 9 BUF 27 CLE 20
  10. 10 BUF 26 CLE 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 97% of them, Browns 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+72.4%
Bills by 9–1617.7%
Bills by 1–86.9%
Level after regulation0.7%
Browns by 1–81.9%
Browns by 9–160.4%
Browns by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.7 points to the Browns: the final margin was Bills by 3, without the luck Bills by 11.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Szmyt, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Badgley, 41 yds made · 80% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 41 yds made · 81% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 5 for 35 yards, Browns 5 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:56 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% BUF +4.8 pts
Q1 4:23 Defensive Holding on the Bills (A.J. Epenesa), 5 yards +1% CLE +0.2 pts
Q1 3:19 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +0.8 pts
Q2 2:23 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Bills (Michael Badgley), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE 0.0 pts
Q2 1:00 False Start on the Bills, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE 0.0 pts
Q2 0:17 Face Mask on the Bills (Jordan Hancock), 15 yards +4% CLE +1.4 pts
Q3 6:57 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +4% BUF +1.6 pts
Q3 5:48 Tripping on the Bills (Matt Milano), 15 yards +4% CLE +1.7 pts
Q3 5:22 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BUF +0.8 pts
Q4 2:01 Intentional Grounding on the Browns (Shedeur Sanders), 14 yards +7% BUF +0.8 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:56 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:03 The Browns were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +10% BUF CLE: Field goal
3 Q4 13:35 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +9% CLE BUF: Punt
4 Q4 11:36 The Browns converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +12% CLE CLE: Field goal
5 Q4 9:33 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +9% BUF CLE: Field goal
6 Q4 7:55 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% CLE BUF: Punt
7 Q4 5:08 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +15% BUF CLE: Punt
8 Q4 2:53 D. Knox dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 153 catchable balls before this +22% CLE BUF: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Wyatt Teller (CLE G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Maliek Collins (CLE DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Keon Coleman (BUF WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Hoecht (BUF DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Prater (BUF K), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 100% · Browns 0%

Final margin
Bills by 3
Luck in points
8.7 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 11.7
Replay with same day's form
Bills 97% · Browns 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · Bills · Browns

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