luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2025 · December 21, 2025

Falcons at Cardinals, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Cardinals 26–19, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Falcons win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:23 left): the Cardinals converted 3rd & 8, worth 12 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 26
Arizona Cardinals 19

December 21, 2025 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −2.5

Luck index +55 Falcons lucky · −55 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 4, Cardinals win 6.

  1. 1 ATL 24 ARI 7
  2. 2 ATL 29 ARI 19
  3. 3 ATL 21 ARI 16
  4. 4 ATL 23 ARI 20
  5. 5 ATL 3 ARI 6
  6. 6 ATL 24 ARI 28
  7. 7 ATL 17 ARI 24
  8. 8 ATL 23 ARI 33
  9. 9 ATL 10 ARI 24
  10. 10 ATL 3 ARI 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 45% of them, Cardinals 55%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+7.3%
Falcons by 9–1612.9%
Falcons by 1–823.4%
Level after regulation7.2%
Cardinals by 1–823.4%
Cardinals by 9–1616.3%
Cardinals by 17+9.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 7, without the luck Falcons by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 50 yds made · 68% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 49 yds made · 74% expected
  • C. Ryland, 51 yds made · 67% expected
  • C. Ryland, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Ryland, 50 yds missed · 69% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 40 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. Ryland, 44 yds missed · 83% expected
  • C. Ryland, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 4 for 20 yards, Cardinals 5 for 14 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Falcons (Zane Gonzalez), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI 0.0 pts
Q1 0:02 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 5 yards +4% ARI +1.6 pts
Q2 5:02 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Cardinals (Chad Ryland), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL 0.0 pts
Q3 12:57 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% ARI +2.6 pts
Q3 11:12 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (Baron Browning), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% ATL +0.8 pts
Q4 13:43 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Will Johnson), 4 yards +2% ATL +1.0 pts
Q4 12:53 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Dalvin Tomlinson), 0 yards +2% ATL +0.4 pts
Q4 10:02 Illegal Formation on the Falcons, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% ARI +1.2 pts
Q4 1:54 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.4 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:32 The Falcons converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +11% ATL ATL: Turnover
2 Q2 0:02 C. Ryland missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 19 of 32 from 45+ before +8% ATL ARI: Missed field goal
3 Q3 12:57 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% ARI ARI: Missed field goal
4 Q3 5:23 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +12% ARI ARI: Missed field goal
5 Q3 3:52 E. Demercado dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 50 catchable balls before this +9% ATL ARI: Missed field goal
6 Q3 3:46 C. Ryland missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him +11% ATL ARI: Punt
7 Q4 2:14 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +8% ARI ATL: End of game
8 Q4 1:30 The Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 55% of interception-worthy throws +9% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonah Williams (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Will Hernandez (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Evan Brown (ARI OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jalen Thompson (ARI S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Zay Jones (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Max Melton (ARI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mack Wilson (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mike Hughes (ATL CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 73% · Cardinals 27%

Final margin
Falcons by 7
Luck in points
5.2 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 45% · Cardinals 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · Falcons · Cardinals

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