luckadjusted

Week 16 2025 · December 21, 2025

Bengals at Dolphins, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Dolphins 45–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 13:45 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Theo Wease), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 45
Miami Dolphins 21

December 21, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −3.5

Luck index +9 Bengals about even · −9 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 9, Dolphins win 1.

  1. 1 CIN 44 MIA 6
  2. 2 CIN 54 MIA 26
  3. 3 CIN 36 MIA 13
  4. 4 CIN 19 MIA 0
  5. 5 CIN 45 MIA 29
  6. 6 CIN 42 MIA 30
  7. 7 CIN 34 MIA 24
  8. 8 CIN 33 MIA 27
  9. 9 CIN 20 MIA 17
  10. 10 CIN 30 MIA 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 91% of them, Dolphins 9%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+56.4%
Bengals by 9–1619.4%
Bengals by 1–815.1%
Level after regulation0.7%
Dolphins by 1–85.6%
Dolphins by 9–162.2%
Dolphins by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 5.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:10 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedS. Perine dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 143 catchable balls before this +11% MIA CIN: Field goal
2 Q2 4:05 The Dolphins fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% MIA MIA: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:47 The Bengals got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:43 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:53 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +7% CIN MIA: Punt
6 Q3 13:45 Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Theo Wease), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · no snap history yet +19% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q3 13:10 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedThe Dolphins fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CIN MIA: Turnover
8 Q3 9:30 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% CIN MIA: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA QB), out, replaced by q.ewers · 7.8 pts
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (MIA S), out · 0.9 pts
  • Julius Brents (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Joseph Ossai (CIN DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kris Jenkins (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 99% · Dolphins 1%

Final margin
Bengals by 24
Luck in points
18.1 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 5.9
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 91% · Dolphins 9% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · Bengals · Dolphins

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