luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2025 · December 21, 2025

Bengals at Dolphins, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Dolphins 45–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 13:45 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Theo Wease), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 45
Miami Dolphins 21

December 21, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −3.5

Luck index +8 Bengals about even · −8 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 9, Dolphins win 1.

  1. 1 CIN 40 MIA 3
  2. 2 CIN 36 MIA 10
  3. 3 CIN 37 MIA 16
  4. 4 CIN 24 MIA 7
  5. 5 CIN 27 MIA 13
  6. 6 CIN 35 MIA 24
  7. 7 CIN 26 MIA 17
  8. 8 CIN 26 MIA 20
  9. 9 CIN 19 MIA 16
  10. 10 CIN 21 MIA 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 92% of them, Dolphins 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+58.2%
Bengals by 9–1620.9%
Bengals by 1–812.3%
Level after regulation1.0%
Dolphins by 1–85.4%
Dolphins by 9–161.6%
Dolphins by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.9 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 24, without the luck Bengals by 12.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Bengals 2 for 10 yards, Dolphins 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:14 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.5 pts
Q2 11:43 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.7 pts
Q2 1:33 Face Mask on the Dolphins (Quinton Bell), 5 yards +3% CIN +0.9 pts
Q3 13:45 Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Theo Wease), 10 yards, wiping out the play +19% CIN +4.3 pts
Q4 12:13 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.5 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:16 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% CIN CIN: Punt
2 Q2 6:10 S. Perine dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 143 catchable balls before this +9% MIA CIN: Field goal
3 Q2 6:06 E. McPherson made a 45-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him, 50 of 70 from 45+ before +5% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q2 4:05 The Dolphins fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% MIA MIA: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:47 The Bengals got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
6 Q2 1:43 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:53 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +7% CIN MIA: Punt
8 Q3 13:45 Offensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Theo Wease), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · no snap history yet +19% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA QB), out, replaced by q.ewers · 7.8 pts
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (MIA S), out · 0.9 pts
  • Julius Brents (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Joseph Ossai (CIN DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kris Jenkins (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 100% · Dolphins 0%

Final margin
Bengals by 24
Luck in points
11.9 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 12.1
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 92% · Dolphins 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · Bengals · Dolphins

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