Week 16 2025 · December 18, 2025
Rams at Seahawks, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Rams 38–37, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 50 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
The Seahawks won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 54% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:57 left): C. Parkinson dropped a catchable pass, worth 23 points of win probability to the Seahawks. The biggest single swing (OT, 3:13 left): the Seahawks’ two-point try was good.
Final (OT)
 Los Angeles Rams | 37 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +83 Seahawks very lucky · −83 Rams
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rams win 8, Seahawks win 2.
- 1 LA 55 SEA 20
- 2 LA 35 SEA 10
- 3 LA 37 SEA 17
- 4 LA 32 SEA 17
- 5 LA 46 SEA 34
- 6 LA 43 SEA 34
- 7 LA 44 SEA 38
- 8 LA 30 SEA 28
- 9 LA 30 SEA 34
- 10 LA 20 SEA 33
Your call
Did the Seahawks earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Seahawks won on an off day
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for the Seahawks: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams offenseEPA per play gained | +0.27 | +0.18 | better by 0.09 |
| Rams defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.26 | +0.08 | worse by 0.18 |
| Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained | +0.26 | +0.13 | better by 0.13 |
| Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.27 | +0.03 | worse by 0.24 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rams win 83% of them, Seahawks 17%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rams by 17+ | 45.8% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 19.9% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 16.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 9.6% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 4.3% |
| Seahawks by 17+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- H. Mevis, 23 yds made · 98% expected
- H. Mevis, 28 yds made · 96% expected
- H. Mevis, 41 yds made · 84% expected
- H. Mevis, 48 yds missed · 69% expected
Penalties: Rams 8 for 54 yards, Seahawks 5 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:49 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Rams, 4 yards, wiping out the play | +9% SEA +4.1 pts |
| Q2 12:49 | Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% SEA +0.2 pts |
| Q2 12:45 | False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LA +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:58 | Defensive Holding on the Rams (Josh Wallace), 5 yards | +4% SEA +0.8 pts |
| Q3 11:20 | Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% SEA +1.9 pts |
| Q3 8:56 | False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SEA +0.2 pts |
| Q3 8:32 | False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:22 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards | +1% LA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 2:41 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Ty Okada), 15 yards | +11% LA +1.8 pts |
| Q4 2:32 | Offensive Holding on the Rams (Davis Allen), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +18% SEA +1.6 pts |
| OT 10:00 | Offensive Holding on the Rams (Shaun Dolac), 10 yards | +7% SEA +0.9 pts |
| OT 8:29 | Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Ernest Jones), 5 yards | +9% LA +0.8 pts |
| OT 5:13 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Emmanuel Forbes), 5 yards | +10% SEA +0.8 pts |
Rams penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Seahawks’ chance of winning
As low as 1% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q4 6:23 | The Seahawks’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +12% SEA | SEA: Punt |
| 2 | Q4 5:39 | C. Parkinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 127 catchable balls before this | +11% SEA | LA: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 2:41 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Ty Okada), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 811 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 | +11% LA | LA: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q4 2:32 | Offensive Holding on the Rams (Davis Allen), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1410 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 | +18% SEA | SEA: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 2:11 | H. Mevis missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +20% SEA | LA: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 0:57 | The game turned hereC. Parkinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 129 catchable balls before this | +23% SEA | LA: Punt |
| 7 | OT 7:42 | The Rams converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +17% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 8 | OT 3:13 | The Seahawks’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +53% SEA | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Charles Cross (SEA T), out · 1.0 pts
- Tory Horton (SEA WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Davante Adams (LA WR), out · 0.9 pts
- Rob Havenstein (LA OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Quentin Lake (LA S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rams 95% · Seahawks 5%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 1
- Luck in points
- 11.4 for the Seahawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rams by 10.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Rams 83% · Seahawks 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · 
Rams · 
Seahawks
More from Week 16 2025
- Eagles at Commanders PHI 29–18 · replay 76% for the winner
- Packers at Bears CHI 22–16 · replay 24% for the winner
- Bills at Browns BUF 23–20 · replay 97% for the winner
- Bengals at Dolphins CIN 45–21 · replay 92% for the winner
- Chiefs at Titans TEN 26–9 · replay 59% for the winner
- Chargers at Cowboys LAC 34–17 · replay 62% for the winner
- Vikings at Giants MIN 16–13 · replay 49% for the winner
- Jets at Saints NO 29–6 · replay 95% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Panthers CAR 23–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- Falcons at Cardinals ATL 26–19 · replay 45% for the winner
- Jaguars at Broncos JAX 34–20 · replay 56% for the winner
- Raiders at Texans HOU 23–21 · replay 53% for the winner
- Steelers at Lions PIT 29–24 · replay 79% for the winner
- Patriots at Ravens NE 28–24 · replay 50% for the winner
- 49ers at Colts SF 48–27 · replay 96% for the winner