Week 16 2025 · December 21, 2025
Steelers at Lions, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?
The Steelers beat the Lions 29–24, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Lions had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Lions.
An off day for the Lions: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Steelers they would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Lions were 71% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:25 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Isaac TeSlaa), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 45 points of win probability to the Steelers. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:08 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Amon-Ra St. Brown), 0 yards, wiping out the play.
Final
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 29 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Lions | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Steelers about even · −21 Lions
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 8, Lions win 2.
- 1 PIT 50 DET 23
- 2 PIT 31 DET 10
- 3 PIT 31 DET 14
- 4 PIT 20 DET 6
- 5 PIT 16 DET 6
- 6 PIT 20 DET 13
- 7 PIT 28 DET 23
- 8 PIT 16 DET 14
- 9 PIT 20 DET 23
- 10 PIT 7 DET 20
Your call
Did the Steelers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Lions
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Steelers they would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
46 points apart for the Lions: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.29 | +0.08 | better by 0.20 |
| Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.13 | better by 0.05 |
| Lions offenseEPA per play gained | +0.08 | +0.18 | worse by 0.10 |
| Lions defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.29 | +0.10 | worse by 0.19 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 79% of them, Lions 21%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 29.6% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 21.5% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 25.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 12.5% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 6.0% |
| Lions by 17+ | 2.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Boswell, 59 yds made · 73% expected
- J. Bates, 36 yds made · 94% expected
- C. Boswell, 23 yds made · 100% expected
- C. Boswell, 37 yds missed · 95% expected
Penalties: Steelers 8 for 89 yards, Lions 7 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 13:41 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers (Ben Skowronek), 15 yards | +5% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q2 6:26 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Asante Samuel Jr.), 10 yards | +3% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:11 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (D.K. Metcalf), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% DET +0.8 pts |
| Q3 2:03 | Offensive Offside on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DET +0.7 pts |
| Q3 1:17 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Darnell Washington), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% DET +2.8 pts |
| Q4 14:58 | Offensive Holding on the Lions (Trevor Nowaske), 10 yards | +2% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 14:44 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PIT +0.8 pts |
| Q4 7:59 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Steelers (Jonnu Smith), 10 yards | +4% DET +1.0 pts |
| Q4 6:36 | Illegal Shift on the Lions (Shane Zylstra), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% PIT +1.5 pts |
| Q4 3:12 | Defensive Holding on the Lions (D.J. Reader), 5 yards | +1% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 1:30 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Kyle Dugger), 14 yards | +12% DET +1.7 pts |
| Q4 1:24 | Tripping on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +21% DET +1.0 pts |
| Q4 0:25 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Isaac TeSlaa), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +45% PIT +3.5 pts |
| Q4 0:22 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PIT +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:08 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Amon-Ra St. Brown), 0 yards, wiping out the play | +100% PIT +7.0 pts |
Steelers penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Lions’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:15 | The Lions were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +14% PIT | DET: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 12:40 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +11% PIT | PIT: Turnover |
| 3 | Q3 1:17 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Darnell Washington), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1966 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 | +10% DET | DET: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 2:09 | C. Boswell missed a 37-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him | +19% DET | – |
| 5 | Q4 1:30 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Kyle Dugger), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 5200 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 | +12% DET | DET: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 1:24 | Tripping on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 19 flags in 4850 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 | +21% DET | DET: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 0:25 | The game turned hereOffensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Isaac TeSlaa), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 386 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 | +45% PIT | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:08 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Amon-Ra St. Brown), 0 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 4769 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 | +100% PIT | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Sam LaPorta (DET TE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Brian Branch (DET DB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Graham Glasgow (DET OL), out · 0.5 pts
- Kayode Awosika (DET G), out · 0.3 pts
- Brock Wright (DET TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Trystan Colon (DET OL), out · 0.2 pts
- Broderick Jones (PIT T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- T.J. Watt (PIT LB), out · 0.7 pts
- James Pierre (PIT CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Isaac Seumalo (PIT G), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 84% · Lions 16%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 5
- Luck in points
- 1.7 for the Lions
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Steelers by 6.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 79% · Lions 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · 
Steelers · 
Lions
More from Week 16 2025
- Rams at Seahawks SEA 38–37 · replay 17% for the winner
- Eagles at Commanders PHI 29–18 · replay 76% for the winner
- Packers at Bears CHI 22–16 · replay 24% for the winner
- Bills at Browns BUF 23–20 · replay 97% for the winner
- Bengals at Dolphins CIN 45–21 · replay 92% for the winner
- Chiefs at Titans TEN 26–9 · replay 59% for the winner
- Chargers at Cowboys LAC 34–17 · replay 62% for the winner
- Vikings at Giants MIN 16–13 · replay 49% for the winner
- Jets at Saints NO 29–6 · replay 95% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Panthers CAR 23–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- Falcons at Cardinals ATL 26–19 · replay 45% for the winner
- Jaguars at Broncos JAX 34–20 · replay 56% for the winner
- Raiders at Texans HOU 23–21 · replay 53% for the winner
- Patriots at Ravens NE 28–24 · replay 50% for the winner
- 49ers at Colts SF 48–27 · replay 96% for the winner